Transcript 0:00 [intro music] Welcome to Trendlines, a podcast on global affairs brought to you by World Politics Review. My name is Peter Durrie. 0:12 Last week, WPR ran a series of briefings on China's rise and its implications for the United States, in which Daniel McDowell looked at China's economic ambitions, Timothy Heath looked at its naval modernization program, and David Fiddler looked at its cyber strategy. 0:28 The briefings provided the basis for a panel discussion among the authors that WPR is sponsoring as part of the St. 0:34 Petersburg Conference on World Affairs, which is being held this week from February seventeen to nineteen at the University of South Florida, St. Petersburg. 0:44 The WPR panel will take place on Friday at nine AM in case you happen to be in the area and feel like coming by. 0:51 But in the event you are not able to, and in order to provide further background and context, this week's special, special edition of Trendlines will take a deeper look at China's rise and its regional and global implications, all with the help of WPR Editor-in-Chief, Judah Grunstein, who is joining me from Paris. 1:08 So Judah, why China? Why China? China because it is massive, because it has an enormous amount of potential energy, 1:20 and because over the last decade, uh, its thirty-year modernization program or modernization campaign, uh, to, uh, modernize its economy and integrate into the global economy has matured to the point where it's now the second largest economy in the world, and that's being felt now in areas beyond the economy in terms of, uh, military and strategic issues, in terms of global influence, in terms of global norms. 1:53 And so China has become the closest thing to a, a near peer competitor that the United States has in the world. 2:04 It's still in, in, by all metrics, uh, not a, a competitor, uh, in, in, in terms of pound for pound, but its weight is, is gathering and its influence is gathering. 2:20 And so because of the nature of China and the United States' previous relationship, uh, the nature of China's regime, the nature of China's approach to global eco-economics and international affairs, there are a lot of reasons, uh, to be concerned about how the, how the China's rise in its, in its more mature, mature phases will, will express itself. 2:51 How will... What kind of power will China be when it is a global power, uh, if not on the same scale as the United States, on a scale to really rival it? 3:03 And so what we've seen over the past ten years as people in the United States especially, but throughout the West, have become more conscious of the, the, the direction that things are evolving in, 3:17 are these competing China narratives. So there's one narrative where China is a, a rival or adversary, uh, and even a, an enemy or potential enemy. There's another narrative where China can be a very important partner, 3:36 uh, for the United States as the United States' relative influence declines to have a, a, a partner global power to take up some of the, some of the weight. And 3:52 then there's the narrative that actually China's rise has, faces natural constraints and that it, there are limits to the, the extent to which it can become a global power, uh, in the same way that the United States is. 4:08 The, the, there are pro-- there are, the, the, the, the difficulty is that there are elements of truth and there are elements of, um, there are elements in which all three of these narratives apply. 4:20 Um, so in terms of economics, in terms of markets and contracts, clearly China is a rival, uh, in parts of the world where the United States used to have, uh, more influence or other parts of the world wh-where the United States wasn't very interested un-till China became, uh, more involved, and we, we'll be talking about that later. 4:41 Um, in military terms too, China's been developing its military in ways that clearly counter United States' strengths, uh, to create sort of a, a, a, a periphery that, uh, in which China can operate, uh, 5:00 with immunity to the United States military power. Uh, and then at the same time, 5:07 there are areas where China has been a partner, even in, in, uh, in terms of, uh, diplomatic efforts like the Iran nuclear deal, uh, at times in the Security Council, uh, for the Libyan inter-intervention, for instance. 5:23 Um, there are times where China has been a partner in security efforts off the coast of Africa, off the coast of Somalia for anti-piracy, uh, naval patrols, for instance. 5:34 And at the same time, it's not, China's never, never isn't and probably never will be the same kind of partner as Japan or Western Europe or some of the countries with which the United States has had long-term alliances with. 5:49 So it's a partner, but again, uh, at times an, a, a reluctant partner. And finally, there really are a lot of constraints to its rise, as we're seeing with the economic slowdown, uh, right now. 6:02 Uh, Chi- China's economy is based on an export-driven model that is unsustainable in the long run, and as it transitions into a, a middle-income country, it's going to have to shift towards a more consumer-driven economy, a domestic consumption economy. 6:21 And th- there are a lot of questions about whether it will be able to do that. There's a lot of, there's a lot of, uh, debt, there's a lot of environmental concerns because of the nature of its economic buildup. 6:32 And, uh, and there, y- we have to keep in mind that China is 1.3, uh, billion people, 6:43 of whom I, I think roughly 800 million are still in poverty, which is more than the population of the European Union, uh, and more than twice the population of the Unit- United States. 6:55 So very daunting challenges for the Chinese government as it continues with this progression. 7:01 So for all these reasons, there are elements of truth to all the various competing narratives about China, and that makes it very hard to formulate policy because it's sort of a push and pull and a, a, a nudge and hope kind of, uh, approach where, uh, there, there has to be efforts to bring China into the, the, the community, the international community, and the, the, to support the kind of, kinds of global norms that the United States hopes for in terms of, uh, f- maritime freedom of, of navigation, open markets, things of that nature, uh, respecting certain conditions for, uh, for aid and development, uh, to, to, to maintain leverage over, uh, authoritarian regimes, for instance, uh, in ways that are, are difficult, uh, because China is resistant to them. 7:51 So there's a, there's sort of this effort to push and pull China into being the kind of partner the United States hopes it will be, and at the same time, to prepare and, and, uh, and try to deter China from being the kind of rival or enemy that, that people fear it might be. 8:09 So it's this double, th- this double-edged, uh, or a two-pronged strategy of engagement and hedging. 8:17 And the, the briefings that we ran last week, uh, looked at three areas in particular that are kind of flashpoints for the, all of these narratives. 8:28 The, the first by Daniel McDowell looked at monetary and financial global governance, uh, in terms of China's economic ambitions and its impact on the United States' role as the, the backbone of the global economic governance system. 8:46 Uh, the second by Timothy Heath looked at China's naval modernization 8:53 and the implications that has for the United States Navy and military in terms of the, especially in the, what, what China calls the near seas, in the East Sea, the South China Sea, 9:09 all of the, uh, the maritime domains around China that are also, uh, areas where the United States has key strategic allies and, and defense alliances. 9:19 And so, uh, China's naval modernization has a huge impli- has, has huge implications for the United States in terms of its Asian alliances, but also more globally. 9:29 And finally, David Fidler looked at S- China's approach to cyber and its cyber strategy and the ways in which it differs dramatically from the United States' approach, uh, and the ways in which it presents a real challenge to the United States' vision for what the internet, what cyber, uh, the cyber domain represents. 9:52 So in all of these, in all of these areas, those, those are, those are sort of three key areas. 9:59 There are others, obviously, but those are the main areas, uh, that where China's evolution and its rise really presents significant challenges to American policymakers and also create, uh, the chance that, uh, that China's impact will, will really shift and, and change, uh, the, the, the nature of the global order for people all over the world, s- not just the United States, but also in Europe and Africa and Latin America and, and obviously in Asia. 10:30 So that's why we're looking at China in, in the way that we are. Uh, in, it, it, it's something that policymakers pay close attention to. 10:41 Uh, it, it's often raised as a, a sort of scaremongering tactic by American politicians. 10:47 It hasn't gotten a lot of attention in the US presidential election because of the nature of the events in the Middle East these days, but it is by far the development in th- in international relations and in the global arena that will have the, the greatest impact on the United States and the rest of the world over the next decade to come. 11:05 Yeah. And I think, uh, where this plays out, uh, the strongest, uh, you already mentioned there that, uh, uh, the US is looking especially at the Pacific theater there, and, uh, it has a lot of, 11:18 um, allies and a lot of interests, uh, around the Pacific Rim. Um, so I guess that, uh, one of the 11:29 issues that, uh, will be front and center at the panel, um, will probably be, uh, China's relationship with, uh, uh, with its neighbors. Yes, definitely. 11:40 The, the, the most direct impact is, is in Asia, and, and here you have s- three real s- sort of concentric circles or, or overlapping circles actually, 'cause they're not really concentric. Uh- 11:56 So you have the, the strategic center of grad- gravity, which is the US alliance structures in East Asia, more generally South Korea and Japan. You have Southeast Asia as this trade center of gravity, 12:12 and then you have the South China Sea as a real flashpoint in terms of, uh, territorial disputes, naval encounters, and a lot of posturing that's going on right now that in many ways is, is sort of display behavior to, to, to, to set down stakes for, for the future. 12:34 Um, and so what's happening in this period where the United States' relative i-influence and relative power in the world has diminished, um, 12:46 and China's has, has dramatically increased, is that you have US allies that are very concerned about whether the United States will be able to contain China's, uh, ambitions, whether the United States will be willing to do so also, and what it means if either of those conditions ends up not being the case. 13:09 So for instance, uh, this could, it could be as, as brutish as territorial s- disputes being settled by force in the South China Sea. 13:21 It could be as subtle as, uh, China exercising its economic influence and leverage, uh, and in the absence of the United States, a little bit of coercive power to gain more contracts and more open markets. 13:33 Uh, there's, uh, and, and that's, that's where the, the, the, the two circles overlap because especially in Southeast Asia, for instance, which is a major, uh, production hub in the global supp-supply chain, there's a huge amount of inf-infrastructure development going on in terms of high-speed rail, in terms of port development, in terms of, uh, roads, and this is a major aspect of China's global, uh, engagement, is what they call the, the One Belt, One Road policy, uh, or, or strategy, where they're trying to build up a whole network of rail, road, and port, uh, transport networks to facilitate trade between China and Southeast Asia and through Southeast Asia through to the Middle East, uh, and Europe and Africa. 14:22 Um, and so the nature of the regional order, uh, is increasingly being called into question, and, uh, 14:32 everyone is watching things like these naval encounters in the South China Sea, including the United States freedom, freedom of navigation operations, um, because, uh, a lot of people want to see displays by the United States that it's willing to, to face up to China, that it's willing to back China down, uh, in, in areas where China oversteps. 14:57 Uh, China for many years was very, very solicitous of its neighbors, was very careful that its rise not be seen as, as provocative or aggressive. 15:07 In the past five years or so, it's been a little less careful about that and has been stepping on some toes, and so, uh, there have been a lot of, there have been a lot of, uh, countries in Southeast Asia 15:20 that have actually turned to the United States to be more active, uh, in terms of, uh, helping to resolve some of these disputes. 15:28 Vietnam, for instance, uh, the Philippines has renewed very close, uh, defense ties with the United States in addition to Japan and South Korea. 15:36 So, uh, the, the whole, the, the whole regional outlook, because it's in such flux and there's such uncertainty, there's a, a lot of, a, a lot of back and forth, a lot of display posturing going on between the United States and China, and the, the, the region is sort of caught in the middle watching both sides to figure out where, where the chips lie. 15:57 Uh, now having said all that, uh, there's also elements of cooperation. There's also, uh, elements of, uh, of less confrontational ways to bring China into, uh, a more, uh, uh, respectf- uh, 16:14 into the kind of, uh, global norms or, or trade norms, uh, that the United States prefers. We've seen the Trans-Pacific Partnership, uh, Free Trade Agreement recently signed as one element of that. 16:26 Uh, so the, the key for the United States is to try to make sure that China realizes it can't overstep, at the same time to, to not make China feel which, or, or to try to reduce the, the sentiment in China which e- which exists that the United States is trying to contain China and to try to keep it from rising and to try to restrict it and keep it down. 16:47 Uh, so again, balancing all of these, these various concerns with all of the opportunities, uh, because more integrated cha-trade in, in, in Asia has been one of the, one of the major drivers of, of reducing poverty and, and expanding the middle class there, 17:06 um, and, and bringing it into the global economy. So there's a lot at stake in terms of what could be, what could be, uh, disturbed if all of these issues and challenges aren't handled in, in a, in a careful way. 17:20 Um, and, and, and that's only in, in the, the regions surrounding China, and as we know, or as you know in particular, China's influence actually has been felt, uh, further, much further beyond, uh, Southeast Asia and Asia, uh, and one of the ar- one of the regions where it's been most evident and prominent is in, is in Africa. 17:43 Yeah, and it's, it's, it's very interesting that this theme of competing narratives about China that you mentioned at, in the beginning, uh, that plays out really strongly in Africa. 17:52 So in, in, in, in, in Africa, you have this perception of China on the one hand as an economic liberator, uh, a real alternative to traditional, um, uh, relationships with European countries and the US And, uh, uh, the perception of China as a new colonial power, like a neocolonialism narrative, uh, where China comes in and takes all the good stuff and leaves nothing for the Africans themselves. 18:20 And so there's, there's really the, um, two, two ways to think about it in, in, in China. Of course, none of these, uh, capture the, the, the reality on the ground. There's a lot of, um, propaganda there as well. 18:34 And but what, what you can say is that many African countries have benefited, and especially the governments have benefited from China's approach to, to Africa, not, uh, where European countries and powers or Western powers have always had this kind of conditionality attached to their support and interaction with Africa, uh, of demo- democratization, economic liber- liberalization. 18:59 China just do- does goes, just goes in and makes deals where it sees a mu- a benefit for itself. 19:07 And you have, uh, big infrastructure projects, uh, big resource projects that are just financed by China because they see an opportunity, an economic opportunity, and which are quite beneficial for, for African countries. 19:22 But on the other hand, this is also, uh, of course, a part of, um, uh, there's also a, a strain of opportunitis- opportunitism there because China doesn't really feel an obligation to stand with countries who get in trouble because of this, this, these economic ties. 19:38 And I think the best example is, is, is right now seeing that, uh, commodity prices are crashing bec- um, not least because China's economy is slowing down, the growth of China's economy is, is slowing down. 19:52 And then, uh, suddenly you have a lot of African countries who have banked on this e- a commodity boom to continue, um, scrambling, uh, to, to keep their finances in order. 20:04 And so there's a, yeah, there, there's really, in Africa itself, there's a huge debate going on about how to, uh, how to treat China in, in this sense. 20:15 And if you look at, if, if, if you look at a bit more, uh, at security policy, you have the, uh, the interesting case that in South Sudan, for example, China is, is, has started its, its, its first major peacekeeping operation, uh, with several hundred Chinese soldiers now being deployed, um, in a UN peacekeeping mission. 20:36 At the same time, China's also delivering arms, um, to, uh, to the South Sudanese government, one of the conflict parties in the, uh, South Sudanese civil war. 20:47 And I think that mirrors, um, China's, yeah, development in, in fits and starts from purely economic power to also a political superpower, where it has political ambitions, uh, in the whole, in the whole world, that it has to weigh against its economic interests. 21:06 And, and again, this is one of the areas where there's a lot of uncertainty because China has, China has always had this, has always emphasized non-intervention and s- and sovereignty as, as the basis of international affairs. 21:21 So don't intervene in other countries' domestic disputes, whether it be a civil war, whether it be instability, whether it be authoritarian government, uh, human rights repression, things like that, uh, maj- mainly because it's always been concerned that those sorts of things will be turned back against it, against China. 21:40 And so the big uncertainty or, or one of the big questions over the last five years or so as China's footprint became more and more pronounced in parts of the world where there is instability and where there are a lot of political disputes that need to be resolved, uh, if business is gonna be conducted, 21:58 was what kind of impact will that have on China's approach to foreign policy? Will China become a peacemaker? Will China become a diplomatic mediator? 22:08 Will China, uh, twist, twist arms and, and, uh, uh, and, and, uh, twist, twist arms to get people to the table to, to, to settle conflicts that are, uh, that are interfering with its, uh, economic operations? 22:24 Uh, again, it, those, those were all of the questions that people were asking, and what we've seen over the last few years is that China has been involved, uh, in fits and starts, like you said. 22:34 South Sudan, for instance, before things deteriorated to the point of civil war, China was involved in trying to mediate between South Sudan and the Sudanese government to make sure that South Sudanese oil, uh, was able to flow through Sudanese, uh, oil pipelines. 22:53 Um, we saw, uh, als- we see also China is increasingly involved in trying to mediate, uh, peace, peace talks between, uh, or among Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Taliban. 23:08 Um, so in, in all these, in all these areas, uh, we're seeing that China is having a little more of an activist foreign policy in terms of positive i- influence. 23:19 Um, and then this, this what you, what you mentioned too about conditionality was the other cons- major concern, this idea that, uh, the, the one piece of leverage that the West and the, the international community had over governments that it weren't, wasn't, that the United States or the West didn't necessarily wanna intervene with militarily, but were doing things that are beyond the pale. 23:44 The one sort of piece of leverage that, that was exercised was always conditionality on loans, on emergency bailouts, on things like that. And China essentially has, has, has sort of s- 23:58 Really, uh, undermined that, that It has offered an alternative to countries who would otherwise have been reliant on, on Western cooperation. Exactly. 24:07 With, with major implications because it means that the, the West needs to recalibrate its approach. 24:13 Uh, and again, as you said, uh, it's hard to tell with China because of the, the nature of their bookkeeping, how much aid, how much development, how much investment, because there's a lot of overlap. 24:23 Uh, but for the most part, it's a business first approach, and oftentimes it's, uh, it's an infrastructure for resource transaction. And the, y- it used to be said, um, 24:38 that when the United States economy caught a cold, the, the world caught the flu. 24:43 And now what we're seeing is that the, the, China, China's economy has slowed down, and all of the countries in the Global South that, that are sort of next in line in terms of developing their economies that were depending on the, the Chinese market and the Chinese demand for, uh, for commodities especially, throughout Africa and throughout Latin America, are really f- feeling, feeling the bite now. 25:07 Uh, and, and there are a lot of questions being asked about whether they made themselves too dependent, uh, on commodities and on China's demand. 25:17 Um, but again, that, that impact is, is being felt, as you said, in Africa, but also in, in Latin America. 25:24 Um, and so again, another aspect of China's rise that is shaking up the, the, the sort of accepted or, or the, the, the, the way everyone's become used to, uh, 25:37 and, uh, and something that, that we'll have to pay attention to. 25:41 So in all of these domains, whether it's, uh, whether it's regional or global, whether it's, uh, military or economic, uh, and also in, in cyber domain, uh, China's rise has enormous implications for the United States and also for Europe, which has had a lot of difficulty being relevant in Asia, uh, and uh, and which has faced a lot of internal divisions about whether to approach China as the European Union with more weight or whether, uh, bilaterally among nations where there's more, uh, c- competition and rivalry for, uh, economic, uh, ties with China. 26:22 Uh, but in, in all these areas, the, there are a lot of challenges and a lot of questions, uh, and a lot of, uh, a l- a lot of trial and error, and a lot obviously depends on China, on its intent- intentions, its ambitions, and China's ability to overcome its own domestic and internal challenges. 26:40 But without question, uh, this, this is the, the development in international affairs and in global affairs that will have the most impact over the next, uh, decade or so. Yeah. Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you. 26:56 It's been a pleasure, like always. That's it for our show this week. Please subscribe to Trendlines on iTunes or in your favorite podcast app. And please also consider leaving a review and a rating while you are there. 27:08 That really helps other people discover the show. Again, if you happen to be in the area of St. 27:14 Petersburg, Florida, make sure to come by for the China panel on Friday the 19th at 9:00 AM at the University of South Florida St. Petersburg, which is part of the St. Petersburg Conference on World Affairs. 27:25 Trendlines is produced and edited by me, Peter Durrie. 27:28 You can follow me and World Politics Review on Twitter, and you can find links to pieces covering the issues we talked about in the show notes on worldpoliticsreview.com. 27:36 Have a fantastic week, and see you next week for a new episode of Trendlines. [upbeat music]
