Transcript 0:00 [intro music] Welcome to the Trendlines, a podcast on global affairs brought to you by World Politics Review. My name is Peter Duri. 0:13 Associate editor of The Diplomat, Prashant Parameswaran, joins us today to discuss the political situation in the Philippines in light of the upcoming presidential elections. 0:23 But first, I'm joined, as always, by Judah Grunstein to discuss this week's developments in international affairs. Okay, Judah, uh, w- what was going on in the world this week? 0:35 Well, we ran a briefing this week by Sumit Ganguly on Bangladesh, where the leader of the opposition and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia appeared in court earlier this month to face charges over a fatal arson attack against a bus that took place last year. 0:54 Uh, now, the attack was to enforce a transportation blockade at the time that the opposition had called to protest against the government of current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League. 1:09 And the opposition considers the charges against Zia politically motivated, in part because these two women have dominated Bangladeshi politics for the last 15 years or more, and they've traded the prime ministership back and forth over the past several elections. 1:27 And the very last election, the opposition actually boycotted, if I'm not mistaken, so it was a controversial election that was never really accepted by the opposition. 1:40 H- However, Sumit emphasizes that the current charges are more than just the latest battle between, uh, Zia and Hasina, since, uh, it, the, the, the, the case takes place in the context of two wider trends that he says signal a, a deeper crisis in Bangladesh's democracy, which historically has been pretty fragile. 2:02 Uh, so the first of these is something that a lot of listeners will be familiar with because it was, uh, it's made headlines over the last year or so, is a series of gruesome attacks by f- religious fundamentalists against secular bloggers, the latest of which took place last week, uh, marking the sixth fatal attack in 14 months, uh, machete attacks in particular. 2:27 Um, and the second of these is a crackdown on dissent. 2:33 The second of these trends, these worrying trends, is a crackdown on dissent by Hasina and her government, both with, with regard to Zia and the opposition, but also, also with regard to the press, uh, including several cases of the gov- government targeting critics in the press. 2:51 Um, and Sumit cautions that given both sides' failure really to accept this fundamental principle in democracy of a loyal opposition, the prospects aren't, aren't very encouraging for Bangl- Bangladesh's democratic norms. 3:08 Yeah, that, uh, sounds a bit worrying there. 3:10 Especially the, uh, machete attacks, which again have taken place over 14 months against, uh, against people who are secular critics of, uh, in particular, Islamic fundamentalism in the country. 3:25 Yeah, and you, you had a very good briefing by, uh, Michael Backer, who l- uh, took a look at how the regional rivalry, uh, between Iran and Saudi Arabia has played out in Africa, and that, that is a topic that I've, I've written about in the past as well a bit, and it's, it's very interesting in that the Iranian regime made great efforts in the, over the last few years to, uh, go and try to bring African governments on its sides, uh, diplomatically, often, um, by, uh, by supporting, uh, by, by trying to curry favor through, uh, economic agreements, in the case of Sudan, uh, by becoming one of Sudan's major arms suppliers and, and, uh, supporting the weapons industry of Sudan to a very great extent. 4:11 And, and now that the, uh, that these, uh, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have escalated a bit over the last month and year, um, in, uh, with regards to the conflict in Yemen and also the ex- the Saudi execution of a Shia cleric, uh, Saudi Arabia has kind of gotten out the checkbook and, and has gone, um, ha- has gone through the, uh, African allies or, or partners of, uh, Tehran and has basically bought them all off. 4:41 And, uh, as, as, as Michael points out, there's a, there's a few very interesting trends here, and it's not only that, that Saudi Arabia has invested, in the case of Sudan, for example, billions of dollars, in the case of s- countries like Senegal, Djibouti, and Comoros, uh, tens of millions, um, to get, get them on, on, uh, its own side. 5:01 Um, but there's, uh, Michael points out that there's also a m- m- m- a cultural, um, a, a cultural closeness between, uh, these majority Sunni Muslim African countries and, uh, the Gulf countries. 5:16 So there's a lot of go- lots going on here, and, uh, the, the kind of, um, 5:22 yeah, uh, everybody's looking at the Middle East as a theater of conflict between, uh, or potential conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but this is playing out, uh, as well in, in Africa and other parts of the world. 5:33 And then you have a very good article that looked at a completely different topic, an economic view of the world's middle class. 5:42 Yes, and this was a, a big theme over the first 15 years of the, of the 21st century, this idea of a gl- the emerging global middle class, and Samuel Rines wrote a long form article for us this week On the global middle class, and in particular, whether it really is a, a permanent fixture in the emerging economies, particularly of the, the global south. 6:10 Uh, so again, this was one of those big stories where, uh, we read a lot about a, a convergence, economic convergence brought about by liberal tra- liberalized trade, where emerging economies were catching up to the develop- de- developed world. 6:25 But in addition to the convergence between nations, there was this dy- this phenomenon where as emerging economies raised, uh, grew economically, they raised their own citizens out of poverty, and we saw the emergence of what was called a new global middle class. 6:43 And, uh, the, the idea was that there would be these political consequences whereby, uh, as people moved up economically and began to have, uh, 6:54 more comfortable lifestyles, their expectations would rise in terms of demands for services and accountability from national governments. 7:03 Uh, but, but Samuel takes a closer look at the numbers in particular and, and concludes that what was described as a global middle class was actually very concentrated in China, uh, with some carry-on effects in resource-exporting countries due to China's extraordinary growth, uh, over the past 15 years, and in particular, its, its demand for raw materials and infrastructure development. 7:28 So now, with the Chinese economy slowing and eco- commodities prices falling, the global middle class suddenly seems a lot more vulnerable. 7:37 And in addition to the commodity cycle impact, Samuel also argues that the internet and information technologies that a lot of people expected would facilitate access for trade and services between the developed and emerging economies will not actually only have positive effects in terms of wages for, uh, people who have moved out of poverty and into the middle class in emerging co- economies. 8:03 So all in all, a, a corrective that, that paints a less rosy picture, uh, for the beneficiaries of the past decade or so of growth. Mm-hmm. And there's also the question of methodology. 8:14 So in the case of Africa, for example, there was a very, uh, a very optimistic report by the African Development Bank in 2011 that put the number of, uh, African middle class, um, uh, of people in the African middle class at close to 300 million, uh, which was, uh, quite outstanding and which was, uh, which was considered to be a very positive sign for the continent. 8:38 And, uh, late last year, actually, Credit Suisse, uh, came out and said, "Well, we looked at these numbers and we, we used a bit, uh, different me- a bit of, of different measurement, not only income, but al- also measurement for wealth. 8:50 And, um, we come out at only 19, 19 million people." So [laughs] less than a 10th of what the African Development Bank thought was realistic in 2011. 9:02 And so there's, there's also that question, who, who actually is middle class and how do we measure that? 9:07 And I think e- especially at the beginning of the century, there was a lot of optimism that led people to overestimate maybe the effects. 9:14 A- and that distinction between income and wealth is, is particularly important when you get into the, the bust cycle of the commodity cycle in the sense that as, as the, the, the, the revenues pouring into resource-exporting countries decline, the obvious impact is on jobs and wages. 9:35 So if people haven't actually accumulated wealth over the 15 years of growth, then when wages go down, they become, uh, they, they remain vulnerable. Thank you very much. Thank you. It's been a pleasure. 9:47 To find these and other excellent stories on global politics, head over to worldpoliticsreview.com. 9:54 If you are not yet a subscriber, you can get s- a special discount exclusively for listeners of Trendlines by visiting about.worldpoliticsreview.com/podcast. 10:05 [upbeat music] The Philippines will go to the polls in May to elect a new president, with incumbent Benigno Aquino having served his one term, term allowed by the Constitution. 10:19 To understand better Aquino's legacy and the challenges ahead for his successor, I sat down with associate editor of The Diplomat, Prashant Parameswaran. My name is Prashant Parameswaran. 10:32 I'm an associate editor at The Diplomat magazine based here in Washington, DC, and I'm also a PhD candidate with the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. 10:44 So the Philippines is Southeast Asia's second-most populous country and its fifth-largest economy. Two interesting tidbits of the Ph- about the Philippines. 10:53 The first is it's the third-largest Catholic country in the world, after Brazil and Mexico, and one of the only nations, uh, in Asia with Roman Catholicism as its predominant religion. 11:09 The only other country like that is East Timor. 11:13 The second interesting, uh, tidbit about the Philippines is that remittances account for about 10% of the entire Philippine economy because the country has one of the largest global diasporas in the world. 11:26 Other thing to keep in mind about the Philippines in terms of its, its system is that it's, it's a democracy, but it's a very young democracy in terms of the fact that it w- used to be run by a dictator, Ferdinand Marcos, who was overthrown subsequently, and democracy in the Philippines is only a few decades in the running. 11:46 So the country is still very much grappling with a number of challenges, including corruption, governance, and some of the other issues. 11:54 [upbeat music]It was years ago that the streets of the Philippines' capital, Manila, were filled with revolution. 12:04 People power overthrew the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos and filled the air with talk of a new and representative democracy for the Philippines. 12:13 But today, the Senate and the Congress remain packed with members of the same political dynasties, and the people still ask, "Is the nation's wealth just being distributed among the elite?" 12:28 Philippine politics, if I were to characterize it, uh, in, in a few sentences, would be characterized by an oligarchic political structure, is what most experts call it, which manifests itself most clearly in terms of political dynasties in the Philippines, which date back far into its history, including a brief period when it was, uh, when it was, uh, ruled and governed, uh, by the United States. 12:54 So there was one study, uh, done a few years ago that concluded that over seventy percent of Philippine legislators who were elected had a previous relative who was also in Congress, which is a number that is off the charts. 13:09 So for a comparison, in a place like the United States where we often have conversations about political dynasties as well, that figure is below ten percent, and in the Philippines it's over seventy percent. 13:21 So this is a very significant development, and that has implications for inclusiveness, that has implications for corruption, uh, for governance, for nepotism, and so that is, I think, one of the main features of Filipino politics that people pay attention to. 13:38 Aquino, 13:40 in terms of his rise to the presidency, he ran for office following widespread sympathy following the death of his mother and former president, Corazon Aquino, who assumed power herself after leading demonstrations that led to the ouster of the former notorious Philippine dictator, Ferdinand Marcos, in 1986. 14:04 Um, Aquino came to power after two previous presidents who were known for corruption and governance issues. So that was the, the setting for Aquino's rise to power, and 14:21 what he pledged to do when he came to office was clean up Philippine politics and try to end a cycle of corruption, of, uh, economic problems. 14:36 And the Philippines had for a long time been known as the, quote-unquote, "sick man of Asia" because of its very slow economic, uh, growth rates relative to some of the other Asian countries. 14:48 So in many ways, Aquino's ascendancy to the Philippine presidency captures both continuity and change in Filipino politics. 14:58 On the one hand, it's continuity because he comes from a long line of politicians, including his mother, who was a former president. 15:08 But on the other hand, it represents change because Aquino, when he came in and he took office, he pledged to end this vicious cycle in Filipino politics, which is characterized by, uh, corruption, sagging economic growth, um, military modernization that continues to be left undone, leaving it to be one of the weakest militaries in the Asia-Pacific. 15:30 I think his presidency has been successful in that it has begun to help the Philippines turn a corner from its previous record, in the sense that he has 15:44 taken a number of anti-corruption measures which have manifested themselves in terms of improvements in transparency, uh, the prosecution of some high-ranking officials, uh, to levels not seen in decades, economic reforms which have boosted the Philippines to one of Asia's fastest-growing economies, something that even experts would not have predicted, uh, before he came to power. 16:09 Uh, but I would say on some other scores, uh, there have been significant challenges under the Aquino administration as well, and even some failures. So, for example, there have been significant governance challenges. 16:23 The Philippines, uh, experienced its deadliest typhoon on record in November twenty thirteen, called Typhoon Haiyan, uh, which killed over six thousand people, and the Aquino government was widely criticized, uh, for its slow response, uh, in that typhoon. 16:43 There was another case in the security domain, mo- moving from, uh, sort of the economic and governance issues to the security domain, where the Aquino administration was criticized for a botched police raid in January twenty fifteen, where over forty elite policemen were killed in the biggest loss, um, of elite security forces in Philippine history. 17:05 Now, these concerns are not unique, uh, to the Aquino administration, but they do demonstrate continuing challenges that the Philippines, uh, faces, e- despite the progress that's been made under Aquino. 17:20 So, for example, in the economic realm, the Aquino administration has made a number of reforms, such as cutting bureaucratic red tape, entering into free trade agreements, boosting foreign investor confidence. 17:36 But unfortunately, some of the reforms that it has not made have actually involved a significant amount of the population. 17:44 For example, the lack of agricultural reform, uh, in the Philippines has stood out as something that has been lacking. 17:53 This is important because even though the Aquino administration has made progress in the economic realm in terms of services and industry, agriculture employs about thirty percent of the population, and yet there has been no progress on agrarian l- ra- land reform, for example, and these things are significant for boosting the Philippine economy. 18:15 Another more general point and criticism made against the Aquino administration is the fact that it has not been inclusive enough. 18:24 The Aquino administration and its proponents have argued that this is not just due to what the administration, uh, has been doing or has not been doing. 18:34 This has to do with the very significant economic problems that the Philippines faced in the first place, and a lot of these problems are structural. 18:42 Just to mention two of them, there's an extremely high birth rate in the Philippines. 18:46 It's one of the highest birth rates, uh, in Asia, and that's a product of the fact partly that it's a very highly religious, uh, society where the Catholic Church has a very powerful role, such that promoting contraception even has, has been quite a controversial issue in the past. 19:02 So that creates a problem in terms of creating new jobs, uh, for the population. 19:08 Another issue, uh, is the fact that remittances in the Philippines account for about 10% of the country's economy, and while some people argue that this is testament to the fact that the Philippine diaspora is one of the largest in the world, some have also argued that this is a handicap for the Philippine economy because they're relying so much on, on external sources rather than internally producing, uh, sources for growth. 19:34 [Instrumental music] The campaigning has begun. Filipinos have exactly three months to decide who they want as their president and vice president. 19:47 I will kill all drug lords, and if anyone in courts ask who ordered this, say it was the mayor. Rodrigo Duterte is one of five candidates running for the presidency. 20:00 He's the mayor of Davao City in the south, and is not mincing his words. So there are four main, uh, candidates in the Philippine presidential election. Essentially, 20:15 the race n- right now as it stands is a race between two individuals. Uh, the first is, uh, Grace Poe, 20:24 uh, who is a relative newcomer to the scene, and she's a politician who is the front runner now, but her candidacy has been dogged previously by questions related to her citizenship and so on and so forth, and recently those questions have been cleared, but she recently in some polls has been lagging, uh, the other candidate, Rodrigo Duterte, who is a known as a strong man and a mayor of, uh, Davao City, and he has cultivated an image of himself as somebody who is going to take a no-nonsense approach to crime and eradicating corruption, 21:10 and has said, uh, very provocative things including the fact that if he came to power, 21:16 if he found that there were, uh, individuals engaged in criminal activity, he would not, uh, be hesitant to have them killed and their bodies thrown into the river. 21:28 Uh, and such concerns, uh, such comments have provoked concerns among some quarters, particularly among human rights advocates, because of concerns about extrajudicial killings, uh, and torture, uh, in the Philippines, uh, among the security forces, 21:47 which has been long cataloged, and some of these concerns are now resurfacing as Duterte continues to make these comments. Now, some individuals believe that 22:00 in terms of continuity from the Aquino administration, the best bet is probably Grace Poe. She's not going to reverse, uh, majorly any of the human rights or, or democracy 22:16 approaches that the Aquino administration took relative to somebody like Duterte. 22:21 Uh, she is generally somebody of, of a moderate demeanor and would be open to not necessarily adopting all of the measures that Aquino did, but certainly continuing the broad brush of some of his economic, uh, security, and, and political, uh, measures. 22:40 Unfortunately, latest polls, uh, within the last, uh, day or two show that Duterte, uh, the strong, the strongman candidate who has vowed to take this tough approach on crime and corruption, is actually leading the polls, uh, relative to Grace Poe, who was leading, uh, previously. 22:58 So I think in terms of the remaining challenges that a next administration will confront, I think you can think about it in two ways, and the first is 23:09 issues that the Aquino administration has started to make progress on but haven't completed. So corruption has begun to be addressed, but there are still significant problems because corruption 23:24 exists on a wide scale in the Philippines, so that, the next administration would have to have a significant commitment to continuing that. 23:32 Another example of something that, where we would need to see continued commitment is on the economy. 23:38 Foreign investors have seen a lot of promise in recent years in terms of the rooting out of corruption, the cutting of red tape, increased spending on infrastructure, the modernization of health and education systems. 23:51 These are all very, very good things, but they take a long time to be institutionalized, and so there needs to be an administration, and indeed several administrations after the Aquino administration, which are committed to institutionalizing and continuing some of these economic reforms. 24:14 Many thanks to Prashant for these insights. For his full country briefing, look for Will the Philippines' Next President Maintain Aquino's Reform Momentum? on worldpoliticsreview.com. 24:27 Thank you for tuning in to Trendlines again this week. If you like the show, you can get it delivered to your computer or smartphone every Friday by subscribing on iTunes or your podcast app of choice. 24:38 Just search for Trendlines. Trendlines is produced and edited by me, Peter Dory. 24:44 You can follow me and World Politics Review on Twitter, and you can find links to pieces covering the issues we talked about in the show notes on worldpoliticsreview.com. 24:55 Have a fantastic weekend, and see you next week for a new episode of Trendlines. [Instrumental music]
