Transcript 0:00 [intro music] Welcome to Trend Lines, a podcast on global affairs brought to you by World Politics Review. My name is Peter Durrie. 0:12 The challenges of integrating more than a million asylum seekers and immigrants are putting a severe strain on the European Union. 0:19 In the report, Judith Sunderland of Human Rights Watch explains why and how the European community should and could address both the rights of, of refugees and the anxieties of its native population. 0:31 But first, I'm joined as always by Judah Grunstein, editor-in-chief of World Politics Review, to discuss some of the major stories in international politics this week. What do you have for us today, Judah? 0:43 Well, we started the week with a great column by Richard Gowan about whether the great powers are losing their grip on global affairs. He cited Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies, the, 0:58 th- their military intervention in Yemen as one example of regional powers taking a much more independent position and role with regard to their great power allies, in this case the United States. 1:11 He also mentioned how the, the new conservative Polish government has been defying Brussels and the European Union upon taking office. And while there are some 1:23 paradoxical or, or counter trends such as the, the recent climate change agreement, um, that, that show that, uh, there is still global cooperation and the great powers still do have a great amount of influence, there are these, these cases where it seems like increasingly great powers, whether it's the United States or the European Union, uh, don't seem to have control over their client states. 1:53 And interestingly enough, he also cited China and with regard to North Korea's nuclear test that, uh, that 2:05 Pyongyang decided to do without informing China and to which China was greatly opposed. So all around the world, it, th- there, there, there seems to be this, this 2:18 increasing fragmentation of, uh, decision-making where regional powers are increasingly doing what they want to do regardless of whether their great power allies agree with it or not. 2:33 So you mentioned China and Korea, uh, s- and there were some oth- some other very interesting stories about that part of the world, uh, on worldpoliticsreview.com this week. Yes. 2:44 Uh, the, the briefing that we ran today by Jonathan Berscher-Miller is a preview of Taiwan's election and, uh, in particular the impact that it might have on Taiwan's, Taiwan's ties with Japan, which have been warming recently. 3:02 And in the event of a victory by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party candidate, uh, Tsai Ing-wen, there could be even greater convergence between Tai- Taiwan and Japan. 3:18 And this of course takes place in the context as well of the recent developments in Japan, South Korea relations, where a deal that they reached over the, the so-called comfort women, the sex slaves from World War II, the Korean women forced into sexual slavery by Japan during World War II, uh, put ties on or opened the possibility for ties between Japan and South Korea to improve as well, and that's been a great impediment in terms of, uh, the American, uh, pivot to Asia, the US pivot to Asia that, uh, that depends in a lot of ways on closer ties among US allies. 3:58 All in all, all of these things, all of these developments reflect the ways in which East Asia and Asian geopolitics have been undergoing seismic shifts as a result of China's ties. The big question, 4:12 in some ways the elephant in the room, is China, because everyone, all of these moves are motivated by, uh, each of these parties' fears, anxieties, uh, with regard to China's rise and power in East Asia. 4:26 And we covered another elephant in the room, so to speak, in a, in another part of the world, uh, part of the world that you're more familiar with than I am, Peter, the, the unspoken ongoing succession crisis in Zimbabwe as Robert Mugabe, 91 years old, increasingly seems, uh, unable to really govern, and there's a crisis within the ruling party 4:51 about who should succeed him. 4:53 Yeah, and this, uh, has been, of course, a discussion that is going on for a long time, as long as, uh, there were rumors about Mugabe's health, and which only grew stronger with, with his increasing age. 5:06 And, uh, but now I think, uh, pretty much everyone expects that Mugabe will be incapable of, of effectively ruling by the next elections, which will be in three or four years, I think. 5:20 And there's a very interesting, uh, piece on World Politics Review by James Hamill, uh, looking a bit closer at the, uh, succession crisis and the discussion around this, and he identifies, uh, two, two front runners, um, for Mugabe's succession. 5:36 Uh, his wife, Grace Mugabe, uh, who is considerably younger, um, than Mugabe himself, uh, she is his second wife, and, uh, the, uh, Vice President Em- Emerson Mnangagwa. 5:50 Uh, there's, uh, with, with Grace being the newer entry into this race, the vice president is a longtime stalwart of the ZANU-PF ruling party, but Grace Mugabe seems to try to pr- uh, to, uh, build on her position as the first lady to make a run at the, at the presidency in, uh, in, in the next elections. 6:10 It, it's a classic palace intrigue story between the long-serving, 6:15 trusted right-hand man And the, the newly arrived First Lady who seems to be taking advantage of personal relationships because she, from, from, from what James writes and from what I've read elsewhere, she doesn't seem to have a whole lot of experience in politics or a political base of her own. 6:38 No, she, uh, doesn't have a lot of experience, and she is really only in the game because of her position as First Lady. And I, I, for one, uh, I don't think that she has much of a chance. 6:49 She, she has built up sort of a own political base through her activities in the ZANU-PF's Women's League. 6:55 She tries to appeal to, uh, to, to the voter base of the ZANU-PF more and more, going on campaign rallies, uh, appearing beside her husband. 7:06 Uh, but I think that if you look at Mnangagwa's, uh, record, uh, he has been in the intelligence com- uh, services. Uh, he is a, he, his credentials go back to the independence, uh, conflict against the British. 7:20 Um, I, I would definitely put my money on him if... And he seems also to be, uh, the preferred candidate of the international community. 7:29 The smart money in authoritarian regime succession usually is on the intelligence guy. Oh, yeah. Definitely. [laughs] All right. Okay. Uh, that's it for "The Briefing" for this week. Uh, thanks, Judah, for joining us. 7:42 Thanks for having me. It was a great pleasure. And let's go to the report. 7:45 [Instrumental music] "For Europe, Integrating Refugees Is the Next Big Challenge" is the title of an in-depth feature by Judith Sunderland on worldpoliticsreview.com. 7:57 Looking at the challenges, mistakes, and possible solutions to the refugee crisis that is currently testing the cohesion of the European Union. 8:04 For the report, Judith took the time to discuss these issues with me for the benefit of The Trendlines listeners. My name is Jude Sunderland. 8:15 I'm the associate director for the, uh, Europe and Central Asia division of Human Rights Watch. 8:21 Uh, Europe saw, uh, an unprecedented, uh, influx of, uh, asylum seekers and migrants in 2015, with over one million people reaching European shores, uh, by sea alone. 8:36 Um, around 84% of those who arrived by sea last year came from countries experiencing war, uh, generalized insecurity, or from countries where human rights abuses are rampant. 8:51 Uh, over half came, uh, from Syria, um, and significant numbers came from countries like Afghanistan, Eritrea, Somalia, and Iraq. Now, the numbers are very high and very alarming to many people in Europe, um, but 9:09 what I would say is that this is more a crisis of, of management and of political will than of numbers. Um, if properly managed, this, this influx, um, 9:22 does not have to be as, uh, as alarming or scary as it has been portrayed. Um, part of the... 9:30 I mean, a big part of the problem has been that the arrivals have been so chaotic and disorderly and dangerous, um, and, uh, and, uh, the fact that certain countries, uh, including Italy and Greece on the front lines, and Germany, a- and Sweden as, um, preferred destination countries, are really bearing, um, uh, the, the lion's share of, uh, of the responsibility for those who have, have arrived, uh, recently, and that is an untenable situation, um, that is creating too many tensions, uh, uh, between European Union states, and for which the asylum seekers themselves are paying the price. 10:13 It was actually widely anticipated that there would be a significant increase in 2015. Uh, I, I'm not sure anybody could have, uh, predicted the, um, quite dramatic increase. 10:25 Uh, you know, five times as many people arrived in 2015 as in 2014. 10:31 Um, but, but still, I think it's fair to say that, um, it was clear there would be a significant influx, and the EU did virtually nothing to, uh, uh, prepare and plan for that, um, uh, for that influx. 10:48 The vast majority of displaced persons, uh, either within their own countries or, uh, a- across international borders, are in the Global South. 10:58 Uh, they are in countries that are least equipped to handle, uh, fairly, uh, and appropriately, um, uh, an influx of, of asylum seekers. 11:10 Um, and if we just look at the, um, the refugee crisis that, uh, the Syrian conflict has, has produced, we're talking about four million people who have been forced to flee Syria. 11:23 And, uh, uh, the, almost all of them are in countries surrounding Syria, so Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey. Um, Turkey has the highest, um, uh, uh, per capita number of refugees, uh, of any country in the world. Um, 11:42 so it's clear that while the numbers of people who have reached Europe, uh, are quite high, they pale actually in comparison to the, the share of responsibility for asylum seekers and refugees borne by, uh, uh, much poorer regions of the world. 12:01 [Instrumental music] Please don't come. Why you have to go from Turkey to Europe? Turkey is a safe country. Stay there. What we've s- what we saw in 2015 was a real sharpening of, um, 12:19 the debate around migration and asylum in Europe, um, and an emboldening of, um, uh- Quite n- a, a very negative narrative, uh, uh, around those arriving. 12:34 Um, so instead of addressing the failings of the EU response to the influx, what we saw was a lot of negative portrayals of, uh, of, of the people arriving, um, and, uh, the rise of, um, 12:52 you know, far-right extremist positions, um, around, um, uh, uh, around migration and, and asylum. 13:01 And certainly alongside concerns around the impact on the economy and cultural identity, in particular European countries, we saw, um, a lot of fears around, um, security and the threat of terrorism, starting of course with the, uh, uh, horrific, uh, attacks in Paris in November. 13:24 Uh, a- and then of course with the, uh, uh, reports of mass sexual assault on New Year's Eve in Cologne and other German cities. Unfortunately, they are, they are very significant. 13:37 I mean, both because the, the, um, the acts themselves are appalling, um, and, uh, uh, and it's very frightening to, to imagine that kind of, that kind of incident. Um, 13:51 but it's also, uh, significant because of the impact it, it, it continues to have on the debate in, in Germany, which again has been, uh, uh, a real leader within the EU, uh, in this, in this crisis, um, and has really helped to, um, uh, to, to, to set a better, a better tone in the debate and has certainly welcomed, um, you know, uh, over, over one million new asylum seekers this year. 14:20 And, uh, uh, those who had already been, uh, uh, uneasy, uh, and concerned about, uh, Merkel's relatively open door policy have of course seized on this, uh, and are exploiting it, um, to, to call for closing the door and to call for, you know, for more regressive policies. 14:43 And we're, we're already seeing, uh, you know, how that's playing out, uh, concretely in terms of, um, proposed changes to, um, to laws governing, for example, deportation of, uh, foreign nationals convicted of crimes. 14:59 And of course, we have to see appropriate, um, uh, response by the criminal justice system, uh, because perpetrators of, of, of crimes need to be held to, to account. 15:10 Um, but, uh, uh, the crimes of some, the crimes of a few should not be used to stigmatize, uh, uh, entire groups. 15:21 Of course, uh, the, the ideal is somebody who learns to speak the language fluently, who is able to, um, either get trained or apply their existing training or profession, uh, in a, in a productive way, whose children, um, go to school and, um, you know, uh, have, have friends who are members of the, of the local community, um, who buys a house, uh, um, you know, becomes involved in, in, in civic, uh, community activities, joins clubs, uh, votes, uh, you know, uh, becomes a, a full participant, um, in, in, in society. 16:02 Um, now that's not always going to happen. Um, 16:06 we need to have somewhat, uh, we do need to have realistic, uh, uh, expectations, uh, uh, about, uh, and, and acknowledge that some people for their, because of their individual circumstances are going to have a harder time, uh, adjusting. 16:23 Um, and we also need to, to be quite honest and, and acknowledge that there will be people, um, who, uh, although they do have a, a, you know, protection needs, they are genuine asylum seekers, and they, they, they do, uh, uh, they cannot be returned to their, their home country because of the, the, the risks associated with that, that kind of return. 16:44 They may be, um, uh, people who will commit crimes. [upbeat music] Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has described the refugee crisis as a German problem. You know, the, the problem is not a European problem. 17:00 The problem is a German problem. Nobody would like to stay in Hungary, so we don't have difficulties with those who would like to stay in Hungary. 17:08 Nobody would like to stay in Hungary, neither in Slovakia, nor Poland, nor Estonia. All of them would like to go to Germany. Our job is only to register them. 17:19 We have seen a bit a, um, uh, an East-West, uh, division over, uh, these issues with, um, uh, leaders of several Eastern European countries like Hungary and Slovakia, um, and increasingly Poland, uh, taking very, very, uh, uh, negative positions, um, in addressing the, um, the refugee crisis, and countries, uh, uh, in Western Europe taking, 17:50 uh, you know, complicated, uh, not always, uh, uh, well, certainly, uh, far from perfect positions, but, uh, certainly, m- generally more, uh, open, uh, uh, rights respecting positions. 18:03 And here, you know, Germany has played a very significant, uh, role. Clearly, we can't underestimate the challenges that, um, that this kind of influx poses for societies as a whole. 18:16 Um, there's no doubt that, um, the arrival of large numbers of newcomers who don't speak the language, who do have a different cultural background, um, who may be traumatized, uh, by what they have lived through, um, will 18:35 put significant strain on, um, the, uh, uh, resources of, of, uh, of, of, um, their host countries. 18:44 That being said, if properly managed, properly communicated, um, organized properly, uh, you know, it's a challenge that most EU countries, all, all EU countries if properly done can, can face. Um, uh, it... 19:02 One of the, one of the things that we have seen is that poor organization, poor planning has created a vacuum in which, um, you know, right-wing extremist positions can flourish. 19:17 A lot of people, uh, of course, they, they, they, they respond, um, uh, with fear, with uncertainty, with concerns about how this will affect their, their daily lives. 19:28 Um, and, uh, uh, groups who are prone to be xenophobic and anti-immigrant will exploit those, you know, quite natural fears. So one of the key things to, um, 19:43 one of the key elements in, uh, uh, in, in, in trying to face this challenge is to put in place, you know, very, very clear plans for, uh, uh, accommodating and integrating newcomers through, um, you know, appropriate, uh, housing solutions that, uh, are, are based on appropriate consultation with local host communities. 20:08 And, um, you know, the, the whole range of integration measures, which include, uh, uh, language training as well as, you know, orientation in, in, uh, about the local culture to really help, uh, newcomers, uh, uh, adjust and, and, and act in ways that, um, can reassure, let's say, local communities. 20:30 But it also means, um, educating local communities about, uh, the people, uh, they are hosting and how they can, um, help that, that transition. 20:42 So when a lot of people talk about integrating, uh, uh, migrants and refugees and asylum seekers, in the EU what they're really saying is, uh, these people need to assimilate. 20:54 Uh, they need to adopt, uh, our culture, uh, our societal norms, um, and they need to adopt really a, a completely new identity in order to fit in. Um, whereas, uh, uh, even, even 21:12 EU, uh, mm-mm, declarations a- around, uh, integration acknowledge that it has to be a two-way s- dynamic. It, it has to involve adaptation on, on everyone's side in order to, uh, um, accommodate newcomers, um, 21:30 and, uh, help them become, uh, members of, of society while not forcing them to give up, uh, their, you know, fundamental aspects of, of their identity. 21:40 And that includes, of course, uh, their, their faith, their, their religion. 21:45 There has been, uh, I would say, uh, uh, lack of leadership, uh, on the part of, uh, of most European, uh, leaders in terms of communicating better to their public, uh, why it's so important to, um, to respect the right to seek asylum, what kinds of abuses and horrors, uh, these people are fleeing. 22:09 And, um, and communicate, uh, very firmly against, uh, xenophobic attitudes, anti-Muslim, anti-Islam, uh, uh, rhetoric, uh, and sentiment. 22:21 Um, and, and to really acknowledge, um, that so many of the people who are coming are coming, uh, with, uh, all sorts of resources and capacities, uh, uh, that they can bring, uh, uh, that they can contribute to their new, to their new homes. 22:38 [dramatic music] No risk is too great. Desperation is driving thousands to the European Union, fleeing the horrors of war. But once here, many encounter fences and overwhelmed border authorities. 22:54 Many of those arriving are sick and severely weakened. They barely make it alive. And then there are those who don't survive the journey. 23:04 There are three main things I would mention as, uh, key to creating, uh, and expanding safe and legal channels for both asylum seekers and refugees, 23:17 so that they do not have to resort to dangerous, uh, and very expensive also, uh, uh, journeys, um, using, uh, criminal smuggling networks. So the first is, uh, resettlement. 23:30 Now, resettlement refers to, uh, the, uh, transfer of recognized refugees from other regions of the world to the European Union. Um, this is a program run by the UN refugee agency, UNHCR. It involves, um, 23:49 uh, uh, a very, uh, intense process of, of screening, um, and analysis of individual cases and their particular vulnerabilities and needs, and then matches up those people with, uh, uh, countries that are willing to take them. 24:07 The EU has a, a very poor track record on resettlement, um, which took a turn for the better last year in 2015 when, um, 24:18 uh, uh, EU countries plus, uh, associated countries like Norway and Switzerland agreed to an EU-wide resettlement scheme, and pledged to resettle over the next two years, uh, over 22,500 refugees. 24:35 Now, so far, uh, the latest data is that In 2015, uh, uh, uh, I think it's 779 people were actually resettled, uh, far, far short of the target for that year under this EU-wide scheme of around 5,300. 24:53 Uh, so it's gotten off to a very slow start, uh, and in any event, the 22,500 number was very, very low compared to the need. 25:03 Um, we're talking about the situation around the world where we have around 60 million people who are displaced, uh, either within their own countries or, or outside. The need is tremendous. The system is in place. 25:17 It needs to be made more effective. The UN agency need, refugee agency needs more money to do it properly and more quickly. 25:25 Um, but the EU has to really step up and, um, pledge to resettle far more people and actually get on with, with it because people's lives really are, are in the balance. 25:38 Um, the EU should also, um, uh, uh, really, uh, start 25:45 providing humanitarian visas to asylum seekers so that they can travel, uh, safely and legally to the EU in order to apply for asylum once here. 25:58 As it stands now, a few countries within the EU have humanitarian visa programs. They are underused even where they exist. 26:07 Uh, and we do see this as, uh, one of the main ways, uh, in which to help those in need reach the EU, reach EU territory in order to apply for asylum without having to risk their life. 26:21 Um, and there too, as with resettlement, we're talking about programs that involve, uh, pre-screening, um, which means that individuals who might be, uh, who might have criminal records or who may raise red flags, uh, uh, about involvement with terrorism or, uh, violent extremism of any sort, uh, could be identified and prevented from reaching the EU. 26:51 Yeah, so it would, it would help the security of everybody, both, uh, the refugees, the asylum seekers, and, uh, the European public. Yeah. The third, um, key, uh, key element is, um, 27:06 facilitating family reunification. 27:09 Many of the people getting on, uh, on, on the boats making these perilous journeys have family members already in the EU with some kind of status or on their way to getting some kind of recognition, some kind of protection. 27:25 Um, and we know that, uh, s- for so many asylum seekers and refugees, bringing their loved ones to, uh, uh, to safety is a primary concern, and we also know that, um, stronger family ties, uh, mean stronger communities, and that helps, uh, in the integration process. 27:48 So in the long run, facilitating family reunification is good for everyone. It's good for, uh, the asylum seekers and refugees themselves. 27:58 It's a way to get, uh, uh, people out of danger into a place of safety in an orderly way, and, um, it helps, uh, create more sustainable, um, uh, communities. People are still coming. 28:12 Um, even in the harshest winter months, even under the most adverse circumstances, um, you know, thousands of people are still, uh, braving the journey, for example, by sea from Turkey to, to Greek islands. 28:26 Um, and that really is a testament to, to the need to escape, um, and the determination, uh, to face even an increasingly hostile environment because the alternatives are worse. 28:40 [Instrumental music] My thanks to Judith for taking the time and sharing these insights, and thank you for tuning in this week. 28:49 If you like this show, please consider recommending Trendlines to a coworker or friend who shares your interest in global affairs, or give us a rating and review on iTunes, which is also the easiest way to subscribe. 29:01 Trendlines is produced and edited by me, Peter Dory. 29:04 You can follow me and World Politics Review on Twitter, and you can find links to pieces covering the issues we talked about in the show notes on worldpoliticsreview.com. 29:13 The additional audio used in the report was sourced from Al Jazeera, Euronews, and Deutsche Welle. Have a fantastic weekend and see you next week for a new episode of Trendlines. 29:23 [Instrumental music]
