Transcript 0:00 [instrumental music] Welcome to episode three of Trend Lines, a podcast on global politics brought to you by World Politics Review. My name is Peter Durrie. 0:13 In this week's report, journalist Sebastian Strangio joins us to discuss Myanmar's recent elections and the country's difficult road ahead after decades of military dictatorship. 0:24 But first, World Politics Review editor-in-chief Judah Grunstein joins me as always for the briefing. So Judah, what, what has been on your plate this week? 0:33 I've, I've seen a very good column by Frida Ghitis, uh, covering some of the in- unintended consequences of, uh, the US, uh, Cuba detente over the last few months. Yes. 0:45 Uh, this, this column is, is an example of the kind of story that, um, that, uh, that I, I really love covering and finding and covering because- Yeah... 0:55 it's, uh, it's a, a story that hasn't gotten a lot of notice, and we've been tracking it in our news scans that we do every day, uh, to spot this kind of story for the last few weeks. 1:07 Um, and it's sort of been building, uh, into, uh, uh, uh, sort of these, these discrete national, uh, crises of Cuban, uh, migrants, uh, building up in various countries along a land route that starts in Ecuador and goes up through the United States, through Central America to the United States, uh, and has now become a real regional issue where there was even a regional summit. 1:32 Essentially, uh, the, the US policy toward Cuban migrants is that a Cuban that reaches US territory, that actually sets foot on US territory, uh, is generally allowed to stay and offered, um, residency. 1:47 Um, and s- uh, but someone who, a Cuban who is, uh, intercepted either at sea or, uh, before they reach the border, uh, is sent back. 1:57 It's called the wet foot, dry foot policy or, or it's known as that, uh, basically, uh, with the idea being that, uh, uh, if, if you reach, i- if you're still in the water, uh, getting out of the boat, you get sent back. 2:11 If you reach the land and your feet dry, you can stay. 2:14 Um, and what's been happening since the beginning of the normalization process with, uh, between the US and Cuba is that Cubans have been suspecting that that policy will change, uh, once, once, uh, diplomatic relations are completely normalized, uh, and that it will become harder to stay in the United States. 2:33 So there's been this growing exodus of Cubans that have taken advantage of the relaxed travel laws from Cuba to fly to Ecuador and make it via land route through Central America, and this has created all sorts of distortions and problems along the way. 2:48 It's brought out these questions of regional politics and also highlights the state of regional cooperation or lack of cooperation. 2:56 So it's a real, uh, fascinating story that hasn't gotten a lot of attention elsewhere and, uh, and I was really pleased to run it. 3:02 You also had a very in-depth feature article on, uh, the legacy of, uh, the Obama administration, um, in terms of cybersecurity. 3:13 And, uh, on the one hand it's, it's interesting to me that, that now, um, the kind of legacy articles come out, so they're, the Obama administration is really in the last, on, on the last leg, uh, policy-wise. 3:25 Um, but, uh, I, I, I thought that this feature was, took a really interesting approach at looking at the different ramifications and in-, uh, motives behind, uh, the cybersecurity policy of Obama. Yes, I agree. 3:39 It, it's written by David Fidler, 3:42 and one of the points that he makes is that the Obama administration will essentially be the first US administration, uh, for which cybersecurity built, will be a, a, a major element of their national security legacy. 3:55 Um, a- the Obama administration came into office, um, and immediately made cybersecurity and improving, uh, US cybersecurity, uh, uh, a priority. 4:07 And his article looks at, uh, those initial goals that were outlined and how well the administration has met them, but it especially looks at, uh, the, the ways that unexpected dev- developments along the way, um, diverted that agenda, in particular the leaks about the Stuxnet, uh, virus that, that targeted Iran's nuclear program, and especially the, um, the, the, the revelations about the National Security Agency surveillance and cyber surveillance by Edward Snowden. 4:38 Uh, so again, a, a, a very in-depth look about some of the very complex issues involved in securing cyberspace, uh, the, the, the ways in which that would already be a challenge, uh, even if there weren't, uh, these unexpected developments, but the way in which the Obama administration was forced to respond to events, um, in, in ways that were, uh, that, that, uh, that made meeting those initial goals even more difficult. 5:03 So a, a fascinating article and, and, uh, and very informative. 5:06 Of course, at the beginning of the week, uh, the big story was the agreement reached at the COP21 at the c- climate conference in Paris, and I think that many people were really relieved, uh, that actually an agreement came out of, out of this meeting after the failures of Copenhagen. 5:23 Um, so, uh, how, how do you think has this, uh, played out? How was this, this agreement received after we have now a few days, uh, uh, to look at it in more detail? 5:35 Well, to begin with, we'd, we'd been covering the run-up to the conference over the course of the past year, and we, we did a special report last week, uh, that, that gathered a lot of our, our articles that, that we'd run looking at some of the issues moving into the conference. 5:50 Richard Gowan wrote a column for us on, on Monday, um, about the conference. 5:55 Uh, Richard, uh, specializes and focuses a lot on, on United Nations diplomacy and, and as well as European diplomacy, and he looked at the agreement through the prism of similar agreements and treaties in the past, in particular the, the Non-Proliferation Treaty that has a five-year review period built into it. 6:12 Um, and he looked at the ways that, uh, the agreement is obviously an imperfect one, uh, but that if it, if it follows in the footsteps of these, these similar treaties in the past, it will have its flaws. 6:26 There will be difficult periods, but it could be a step in the right direction. 6:29 Um, so again, I think the, the consen- the consensus about the agreement is that it's not enough, but it, it's certainly better than failure would have been, and it puts us in a position where with more effort and accelerated effort over in the near future, um, that, that some real progress can be made to meeting this, this global existential threat. 6:50 Um, and in that, uh, something else that he points out that, um, that, that I think is important about the conference is that in, at a time when, when, uh, the, the, the s- the relative decline of the, the United States, um, and, and the West in general in terms of global power has been, uh, very much highlighted, uh, that it really was a diplomatic victory for the United States, which pushed very hard, that, uh, which, uh, which tried very hard to move China in the right direction, uh, and, and really lobbied quite a bit f- for bringing an agreement, and especially, uh, it was a diplomatic victory for the host, uh, France, um, which, uh, 7:31 which really, uh, highlighted the ways in which, uh, the West, for all its relative weaknesses, is still, um, a very powerful force in, in, uh, these kind of diplomatic initiatives. 7:45 Um, and, uh, in that, it wasn't the only look that we took at, at France. 7:51 We also, uh, covered France in another briefing, which was yours, Peter, uh, which looked not at the diplomatic successes, uh, that France has, uh, achieved, but more the, the military and security challenges that it faces in trying to stabilize the Sahel in, uh, in West Africa. 8:09 Yeah, and there it's, uh, really, uh, France has been, of course, involved in the Sahel since, uh, s- since it has, uh, begun taking colonies there. 8:17 But, um, I think there has been, uh, there has been a real shift in, uh, f- uh, the approach of the French government towards security in the Sahel since 2012, uh, when, um, militants took over control of some parts of Mali, and France was basically forced to intervene because no other country had the interest and/or the means, um, to, to get involved there. 8:40 And since then, uh, France has had a really huge anti-terrorism operation running in, in the Sahel countries with, uh, over 3,500 soldiers, um, involved in a, in a very, uh, direct way on the front lines fighting terrorist groups and, and criminal networks in the area between Mali, Niger, Chad, um, Mauritania, and Libya. 9:04 So I've, I've looked a bit at the way that the French military and government is approaching this and at the consequences. 9:11 Well, usually it's, uh, it's you thanking me, Peter, but, uh, since, since, uh, you, you had the final remarks, I'll thank you for, uh, for joining us. [laughs] Thank you. Has been my, my pleasure. 9:21 If you would like to know more about the issues we discussed, you can find links to the relevant coverage of WPR in the show notes on worldpoliticsreview.com. 9:30 And if you want to subscribe to future episodes of Trendlines, the easiest way to do so is through iTunes or your favorite podcast app on your smartphone. Just search for Trendlines. 9:41 And while you are there, please leave a rating and comment, as that really helps other people discover the show. But now, the report. 9:47 [Instrumental music] Sebastian Strangio wrote an in-depth country report on Myanmar for World Politics Review this week, and I had the great pleasure to talk with him about some of the issues raised in his piece. 9:59 Until recently called Burma, Myanmar has been the pet subject of Western pro-democracy activists, not least because of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's dec- decades-long resistance against the country's military rulers. 10:14 The recent and historic elections were therefore an occasion for celebration, but as Strangio points out, by far not the last step on the country's difficult road out of decades of military dictatorship and ethnic violence. 10:28 My name is Sebastian Strangio. I'm a journalist and author based in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, um, from where I cover the Asia Pacific. 10:39 Myanmar is a, a country of mind-bogglingly complex ethnic and religious, um, interactions. About two-thirds of the country's population of 52 million is ethnic Bamar, uh, as the majority is known. 10:55 The remaining third is a patchwork of ethnic minority groups and peoples, 11:02 um, based mostly around the country's periphery, um, and this, this ethnic complexity, coupled with the, um, the rule of the military, has created a sort of vicious cycle whereby, um, the military has presented itself as the on- the only way of keeping the country together at the sa- uh, at the same time as its treatment of ethnic minority peoples has only increased their desire for more autonomy and more ethnic rights. 11:30 [Instrumental music] From the beginning of this administration, we have pursued a policy of engagement to support human rights and reform in Burma. 11:44 We knew that the challenges were great, but we also believed that a new approach was needed to support the aspirations of the people. 11:55 And this week, the government and the people made further progress in advancing those aspirations. [upbeat music] For years, Myanmar has been an international pariah state. 12:08 Ruled by the military since 1962, the country has been isolated from much of the world, subject to sanctions, economic embargoes, and the opprobrium of much of the world community. 12:23 In the past five years, however, the country has in-in-initiated a series of reforms. Um, they've opened the political system. 12:31 They released from house arrest, uh, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, uh, one of the, the country's leading, uh, democratic politician and, and Nobel Peace Laureate. Um, it's released hundreds of other political prisoners. 12:45 Um, it's freed the press. It's encouraged or permitted open political discussion. And last month, it held its first freely contested national election since 1990. 13:00 The election saw a landslide victory for the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi. They won more than two-thirds of the seats up for election, which gave them a total majority in the parliament. 13:16 The ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party, which is essentially a political proxy of the military established before the last election in 2010, which the NLD boycotted, suffered a massive defeat. 13:30 And so I think that this election result simply reflects the fact that the military in Myanmar is hated, um, even by people who have relatives in the military. 13:40 It's, you know, it's seen as something which has held the country back. Um, and I think internationally, a lot of people, 13:48 or a lot of people have looked at their neighbors and asked why their country remains so economically backward and have finally decided they want some change. 13:59 [upbeat music] [cheering] Her supporters were there to greet her when she arrived at party headquarters a day after Myanmar's groundbreaking election. Aung San Suu Kyi's party had been expected to win. 14:14 Addressing her supporters, the seventy-year-old opposition leader called for unity. From afar, it's tempting to see this as a happy ending. 14:24 The reality on the ground, as always with these sorts of things, is much more complex. Even though the military was surprised by the extent of its defeat, the Constitution still protects the bedrock of its power. 14:37 It still protects its control over most of the fundamental security, uh, apparatuses and its control o- it- its e-economic empire. 14:48 In, in some ways, it's, it could be concluded that the reason that this, uh, transition has so far been relatively smooth is because the military's prerogatives were already safeguarded by the Constitution. 15:01 The 2008 Constitution guarantees that the military retains control of, um, probably the three most crucial portfolios in Myanmar. 15:10 It's the Ministry of, uh, Border Affairs, the Ministry of Home Affairs, and the Ministry of Defense. 15:16 This effectively means that the, that the security apparatus of Myanmar, including all of its budgets, will remain above civilian scrutiny, uh, d- no matter who controls the government. Um, [lip smacks] 15:32 and the Constitution also protects, um, the military's economic empire, which is either crrol-- uh, controlled directly through military holding companies or through tycoons which have a close relationship with the army. 15:48 Um, I mean, this includes everything from ports to jade mines, um, to national airlines. Um, and, you know, in a very real sense, the military is still in control of the commanding heights of the Myanmar economy. 16:03 It's very clear that there are, um, two broad camps in the military, though. 16:08 There are so-called hardliners, who, people who are, are, are more resistant to the idea of reform and continue to see the military as the best guardian of Myanmar's national destiny. 16:21 Um, and there are those who see, who've seen that, um, working with the opposition, opening the country in a selective manner, welcoming foreign investment, that all of these things could exist alongside the military, uh, retaining a privileged position in Myanmar's political life. 16:40 The current reforms, even though they appeared to take a massive step forward around 2010, um, they actually, uh, this process has been stage managed by the old military government very effectively. 16:52 Um, in 2003, the military announced a seven-step roadmap to what it termed, uh, disciplined democracy. Um, 17:03 uh, you know, this roadmap envisioned the slow opening of the country to, uh, foreign investment, um, the diversification of the country's foreign relations away from an unhealthy reliance on China, and, you know, a moderate amount of political reform which would bring the country back into the community of nations. 17:24 Um, uh, and so all of these things took place in a very steady, uh, well, uh, considered pace. 17:32 In 2008, the, uh, constitution, which had been drafted as part of this roadmap, was promulgated, um, and approved in a referendum which was questionable. 17:44 Um, and then in 2010, the country's first election since 1990 was held. Um, uh, the NLD decided to boycott this election because its leader, uh, Aung San Suu Kyi, remained under house arrest. 17:59 But shortly after the election, she was released from House arrest and, um, in by-elections 18 months later, um, participated and was elected to Parliament for the first time. 18:13 And so, you know, this roadmap and this gradual opening, um, showed a very clever manipulation of Western impressions of Myanmar. Uh, many Westerners idolized Aung San Suu Kyi for good reason. 18:28 Um, she sacrificed a huge amount in her pursuit of democratic reform in Myanmar. Um, but o- the government realized that once they brought Daw Suu into the system, 18:39 um, she would give a de facto, uh, seal of approval to the reform process. 18:45 Th- the reforms produced what I would describe as an irrational exuberance internationally, um, both about the economic potential of Myanmar and also about the, you know, the reality of what was really happening politically. 18:59 [upbeat music] Anyway, this was a big victory for democracy, but we here in Myanmar still have a ways to go. 19:08 For example, the Constitution still gives the military 25% of the seats in Parliament no matter what, which is ridiculous because for true democracy, the people- [laughs] [paper rustling] 19:23 For true democracy, the people need a strong guiding hand from the military, which is always welcome within the realm of our great nation. Now smile and end the show. 19:36 [laughs] Well, that's all for tonight's Myanmar Daily Show. [upbeat music] You know, the interesting question now is, um, how much more power the military is going to be willing to cede. 19:49 The roadmap has created a system in which they've, uh, they continue to control, um, as I said, much of the economy, and they can, can continue to operate, uh, free of civilian, uh, scrutiny. 20:01 But, but the question is, you know, uh, whether Myanmar's people and whether the NLD will be able to push successfully for more reforms to remove this last vestige of military control in Myanmar. 20:14 The NLD faces a huge amount of difficulties in pushing for more reform. [lip smacks] The Constitution, um, 20:21 uh, has a clause stating that a three-quarter vote of the parliament is required for any constitutional amendments. 20:28 And since the military holds 25% of those seats automatically, they have a defa- a, a, an effective veto over any changes to the Constitution. Um, 20:39 and, and you know, I- it's possible that the NLD might try to pursue other, uh, methods for changing the Constitution. 20:47 One method, which one of the NLD's lawyers, um, explained to me during an interview last month, was that the party could effectively scrap the Constitution, draft a new one, and hold new elections. 21:00 Um, but either of, you know, both of these strategies are likely to be seen as fairly provocative by the military. 21:08 Um, and I think, you know, the difficulty facing the NLD at the moment is that for them to make progress on key national challenges, such as ethnic inclusion, the end to the country's, um, chronic ethnic and sectarian conflicts, um, [lip smacks] 21:26 and further political reforms, they need the military on side. 21:30 And any step towards something that might be seen as precipitate, uh, political reform could well create tensions between the two camps and hamper the NLD's ability to achieve, um, progress in other areas. 21:47 Much, you know, hinges on the next few months. 21:50 [upbeat music] You had mobs of young Arakan, mobs of young Rohingya roaming the streets, committing random acts of violence, beheadings, stabbings, people basically going to their neighbors' houses, pulling people out of the house, beating them to death. 22:08 One of the problems that we were able to document was that there was collusion between the security forces and the ethnic Arakan, of which the Rohingyas were really the, the victims. 22:19 Since Myanmar's independence in 1948, ethnic conflict has been sort of the country's original sin, and I describe it as the, the glitch in the national hardware. 22:30 It's literally foundational to what Myanmar is as a country and what it stands for and what Myanmar national identity really is. 22:39 The country has been in a state of near constant conflict between the Myanmar military, which is dominated by the, uh, ethnic Bamar majority, and a whole raft of ethnic groups, um, living around the country's mountainous periphery. 22:56 And for the last few decades, the Myanmar military has learned to manage these conflicts by signing ceasefires with many of the, um, ethnic armed groups that have been opposing them and, and creating a sort of lucrative, mutually beneficial status quo in a lot of these, um, peripheral areas. 23:16 But none of... This has sort of sidestepped the challenge of ethnic inclusion. 23:21 Um, and so Myanmar's borderlands remain to this day, um, loosely governed, uh, a patchwork of, um, rebel enclaves, autonomous zones, and conflict zones, um, beyond the effective control of the central government. 23:39 The challenge for the NLD is much more than simply establishing peace. Peace has existed in many of these regions for the last few decades. 23:47 The quest- the question is ethnic inclusion and creating a federal structure that can accommodate ethnic, um, ethnic rights and the idea of ethnic self-determination. It's always been easy to see Myanmar's 24:01 struggle from afar as a sort of morality play. Uh, on the one hand are the victims, on the other hand are the violators. On the one hand are the, they're the, uh, the good guys, and on the other, the bad guys. 24:15 And I think during the, the decades of military rule, this sort of, you know, symbolic perception of the Myanmar conflict made sense in a way. 24:25 Um, but now that the country's begun to open up, there's a lot of zones of gray that are beginning to become apparent. 24:31 The concern I have is that a lot of international observers are projecting their own hopes, not only for how Myanmar will develop, but for how countries develop in general. 24:43 There seems to be this faith in the idea that once you remove obstacles to democratization, then democratization will take place inevitably as a natural process. Um, I'm much more skeptical about that. 24:55 Um, you know, I, I've already noticed in Myanmar that a lot of contradictions, um, in the country's so-called democratic transition. 25:05 Um, you know, for instance, a lot of the people, the democratic activists who fought for decades to free their country from military rule and spent, in some cases, a decade or two in prison, um, for that struggle, 25:22 a lot of these people have come out in the last few years and expressed fairly prejudiced views about the country's Muslim population. Um, 25:31 and, and so what you're seeing is that just because one stands for an end to military dictatorship does not mean that one stands for, uh, you know, the full package of universal rights, democratic politics, and, uh, uh, you know, and, and free market economics that, that we in the West have sort of, sort of put on a pedestal as the, you know, the, the ideal sort of political system in a way. 25:55 And so I think that Myanmar is a very good illustration of the fact that all good things do not go together. Sometimes a coun- a country can experience progress on one front, which can lead to regress on another front. 26:07 There's no guarantee that what is achieved in one field will strengthen achievements in other fields. Um, and I think that the, the last few years have s- have sort of started to, um, complicate and muddy 26:22 that morality play, that fairy tale, um, of how we saw Myanmar, uh, how many of us saw Myanmar from overseas. The 26:33 pathologies of half a century or more of military rule and the legacies of half a century of ethnic conflict will not be overcome in a single election cycle, and it, it could well be generations before these issues are processed and overcome fully. 26:51 [Instrumental music playing] My thanks to Sebastian for these fascinating insights, and thank you for listening to this week's Trendlines. 27:01 Please remember to subscribe to us on iTunes and to visit worldpoliticsreview.com for more coverage on the events and developments we covered this week. This show was produced and hosted by me, Peter Durie. 27:13 You can follow both me and World Politics Review on Twitter. The additional audio in the report was sourced from the Department of State, the Deutsche Welle, The Daily Show, and Human Rights Watch. 27:24 There won't be an episode on Friday next week due to the holidays, but we are working on a bonus episode to review this year's main developments in global politics, which will likely air on December the 28th, so stay tuned for that. 27:36 Until then, happy holidays to all of you who celebrate in the coming days, and thank you for listening. [Instrumental music playing]
