Transcript 0:00 [intro music] Welcome to Trendlines, a podcast on global affairs brought to you by World Politics Review. My name is Peter Duerr. 0:12 We will be joined by David Hutt for the report, who will share some fascinating insights into the politicization of Isla- Islamic law in Malaysia. 0:21 But we will begin with, uh, the briefing on world affairs, this week not with Judah Grunstein, who is away, but with Freddy DeGnatel, senior editor for WPR in New York. Uh, welcome to the show, Freddy. Hi, Peter. 0:33 Thanks for having me. My pleasure. So, uh, which of this week's stories, uh, did you bring for us? 0:39 Uh, the first piece that I wanted to discuss was a column by Richard Gallen, written after the signing last week of the historic peace agreement, long overdue, between Colombia and, uh, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, a guerrilla group that has been at war with the Colombian government for over fifty years. 1:01 Uh, and Richard wrote a column, um, pegged to some of the commentary after the signing of the deal, celebrating the fact that with this conflict effectively over, you have only a sixth of the population of the world, um, 1:16 engaged or actually living in conflict zones, and that this is something that obviously that we should celebrate, that the majority of the world is enjoying peace. 1:25 And Richard certainly acknowledges that, but he also raises, uh, a cautionary warning that there's some moral peril in emphasizing the fact that only a sixth of the world has to live with war. 1:37 And that's especially true when the conflict zone, more or less, for this, uh, sixth of the world stretches basically from Africa, around Nigeria, through the Middle East, uh, and into South Asia in Pakistan, where, uh, conflict, especially around the self-declared Islamic state in Syria and Iraq, uh, shows no sign of ending. 1:59 Um, and so Richard, uh, while obviously celebrating the fact that the Colombia peace accords, um, are a major step for peace, uh, he, he, he does raise, um, a note that there is some danger in, in sort of, uh, resting on the comfort that while the majority of the world is at peace, uh, perhaps there's a tolerable level of violence that, uh, people in the West perhaps can live with, knowing that it's just confined to what he calls the rump, the unstable rump of the world that remains chaotic. 2:33 Yeah. 2:34 It, it's a, it's a very interesting piece, a very interesting, uh, comment, and, uh, I think especially the, uh, for me, the, um, the kind of geographic clustering of the, of, of the instability zone that he describes, the rump, uh, is, is really worrisome and- 2:50 And speaking of sort of that broad conflict zone, uh, there was a reported piece from a contributor in Ethiopia, uh, that I know you wanted to discuss. Yes. 3:01 Uh, this was a briefing, uh, by William Davison, um, and he looks at the, uh, at, at the protests that have been ongoing in Ethiopia since, uh, 2015 and, uh, this is, uh, this, this, this hasn't received a lot of, uh, attention in the mainstream media, um, but, uh, these are really massive demonstrations, uh, first led by, uh, young Oromo, one of the country's two largest, um, ethnic groups. 3:31 In the beginning, they protested against a development plan for the capital, uh, which, uh, would have the capital encroach on, uh, lands inhabited and farmed by Oromo farmers. 3:43 And, uh, now in the latest round of protests, uh, there's also, um, uh, members of the, uh, of the other, uh, large ethnic group, uh, of the Amhara joined, um, motivated by a slightly different set of land use questions and political concerns. 4:01 And more and more these protests really f- rising from, from very specific issues, and more and more they, they really challenge the fundamentals of the Ethiopian devel- developmental state. 4:16 The Ethiopian political, uh, elite has a very, uh, a, a very ideologically, uh, fixed image of what their state is supposed to be and, um, inspired, uh, inspired by, by Marxists and, uh, Chi- and Chinese thinking. 4:33 And, uh, the government has, has responded very violently to these protests, and so far about six hundred protesters were killed. 4:41 And William really does a, does a really fantastic job of, of describing the intricacies of political power in Ethiopia and how they are challenged by these protests. 4:49 And, uh, in Ethiopia, you, you have this, this, the dominate, dominant ethnic group, the Tigray, uh, only, um, represent about 6% of the population. 4:58 So you have a situation where the stability of the, uh, elite, uh, and of the ruling elite really relies on alliances with parts of the other ethnicities and, uh, to, to guarantee the survival of the, of the current system. 5:12 The ethnic balance there that, uh, you have a minority, like you said, minority, uh, ethnic group that relies on its alliances more or less with the two dominant, uh, ethnic groups, and that this was the sort of federal system that was created in the, in the 1990s, um, 5:30 but in fact now, uh, within that system, you have these majority ethnic groups asserting their rights, um, as, as, as he put it in his piece. Yeah. 5:39 And ironically, I, I think one last, one last point on this, on this piece because I, I think it's very in- it's a very important point that, that William also makes is that ironically, um, uh, the regime has, has had great success in suppressing organized opposition in the rec- in recent years, but this now turns out to be its most- It's, its greatest problem because it, there is practically no one to address, um, uh, to have a dialogue with. 6:08 So there are these protesters, but, um, they are not, there's no organization that the government could approach to enter into a dialogue and to find some form of compromise, and this really turns out to be a, a huge problem for the ruling elite and something that will maybe contribute to making, uh, this, this protest, uh, more violent and, and more, and bloodier than it, than it should be, um, considering the circumstances. 6:34 Then you had a, a very good briefing also, um, uh, on, by Jack Goldstone, I think you wanted to talk about. Yes. 6:42 This was the latest piece in a series that we've started, uh, that I think Judah mentioned, uh, perhaps in the last episode, that we've called The Global Agenda, where we've invited authors to identify the biggest priority, whether that's a threat, a risk, an opportunity, or a challenge facing the international order and US foreign policy today. 7:03 Uh, and so in this latest piece, Jack Goldstone, who is a sociologist and political scientist who recently has been based in Hong Kong, uh, he looks at 7:15 worrying trends, uh, in the 25 years since the end of the Cold War and makes a, uh, I think, provocative argument that 7:24 particularly with democracy under threat again around the world, the United States and the West in general, uh, is confronted with a lot of the same conditions during the Cold War, uh, in terms of the need to defend democracy and universal human rights. 7:39 He says the West faces a, a new Cold War, um, and p- in particular sort of looks at two factors. 7:46 Um, one of which is obviously the headlines for the last few years, the rise of the Islamic State and other affiliated jihadist groups that aren't just terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda, but have aspired to hold land and have actually succeeded in doing that. 8:04 Um, and, and their dreams for a caliphate across the Middle East and beyond is a deeply illiberal and anti-Western, uh, goal. 8:13 But Jack also looks more deeply at, uh, what he sees as a more troubling sign, and that is sort of the retreat or even collapse of democracy in US allies like Thailand and Turkey, 8:25 um, and the retrenchment of authoritarian governments in places like Egypt, um, other African countries like Rwanda and Zimbabwe, and also Ethiopia, um, as the briefing this week looked at. 8:38 Um, and he's, he, he also points to, uh, I mean, the, the Cold War conditions, uh, are not the same in that there isn't a single, uh, unitary power in the f- in the form of the Soviet Union, but you do have dominant major powers in Russia and China that are challenging the, the United States, but also at home, 8:59 uh, really curtailing democratic governance in ways that, um, the United States and its allies would have pushed back on much more during the Cold War. Uh, and so Jack makes the point that, 9:13 uh, sort of in the 25 years since the fall of communism, uh, there's sort of been this, um, idea that y- once former communist countries were integrated into the capitalist system and into the global economy, that the economic gains would, uh, almost come hand in hand with political change, and that hasn't happened. 9:34 Um, and the West, as he says, sort of needs to realize that it has slept for decades and that it does in fact need to still fight to preserve liberty and democracy a- around the world, as he says. 9:46 Um, and I think one important point that he makes as well is that, um, 9:52 in this, you know, two and a half decades since the fall of communism, uh, Western nations and the US in particular, as he says, have sort of allowed a level of economic inequality and stagnation to take root in their own societies in a way that they wouldn't have during the Cold War against the Soviet Union. 10:09 Um, in large part because it was seen as, you know, trying to win an argument, uh, of democracy versus communism. 10:17 Um, and, and I think that he, he points out very well that, um, democracy in the United States and in other democratic countries in, in Europe, um, has taken a, 10:29 a hit to its reputation, um, in part given the economic stagnation and, and, and in inequality, and that this is one reason why, uh, entrenched autocrats and why, um, illiberal democrats in places like Hungary are able to win more votes and more arguments by criticizing, uh, the West and by criticizing democracy. 10:50 Very interesting. Thank you for coming on the show today. Thanks, Peter. Great to be here. 10:54 [Instrumental music plays] In Malaysia, ethnicity and religion are deeply intertwined with politics, which explains why the attempt of a small opposition party to introduce Islamic law into the criminal code of one federal state has led to a major reshuffling of Malayan p- party politics. 11:14 David Hutt takes a closer look for this week's report. My name is David Hutt. I'm a British journalist based in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. 11:25 I report on, uh, Asia Pacific politics and, and current affairs for a range of different newspapers and magazines. Malaysia is a country in, in Southeast Asia. Um, it is a fairly multicultural, multiracial, uh, society. 11:40 The last census, which I believe was carried out in 2010, showed that about 67% of the population was Malay, who are typically Muslim, uh, 25% were Chinese, who are either Buddhist or Christian, and about 7% were of Indian descent. 11:57 Um, in terms of religion, that typically boils down to 60% Muslim, 20% Buddhist 10% Christian and less Hindu. 12:08 This multiracial, multicultural composition is largely a result of the British Empire, which ruled Malaya as it was until 1946. In the post-colonial breakup, all the plans following the British, 12:27 following when Britain left, there was much concern from the Malay Muslim population about losing too much control to the Chinese Malaysian population. So after the breakup, there was, 12:44 first of all, was the Federation of Malaya, which was in 1948. Then the country finally gained independence in 1957. This formed the Federation 12:59 of Malaysia then in 1963, which included Singapore at the time, but then Singapore became a separate state two years later. Singapore, one must remember, is a predominantly Chinese area and now country. 13:16 So this is a very rough history, but it also shows the problems that Malaysia has had with its racial composition. And in 1969, there was racial riots in the capital, Kuala Lumpur. 13:32 Between 200 and 600 people were killed, I believe. And following this, a few years later, the Malaysian government tried to, oh, it implemented what it called the New Economic Policy, which was to attempt to 13:47 break down some of the racial tensions. But one of its biggest impacts, certainly according to its critics, is that it introduced an affirmative action for the Malay Muslim population. 13:59 So whenever you go to Kuala Lumpur and you speak to people of Chinese descent, most of them will say that the Malay Muslim population gets all the government positions. 14:09 It's filled with a bureaucracy and it has a special position, if you like. In more recent decades and more recent years, these tensions have died down, but they're always still there behind the surface. 14:26 PAS has ruled Kelantan, a staunchly Islamic Malaysian state, since 1990. They want to prescribe whippings and stonings for serious crimes. Murder is a very heinous crime. Rape is very heinous crimes. 14:41 Robbery is very heinous crimes. And now crime rate is increasing in Malaysia. The current law that we have is not able to cope with this crimes problem. 14:54 Non-Muslim minorities say the proposal and local bylaws discriminate against them. Discos and gambling are banned. Pork and alcohol sales are limited. And they complain buildings must resemble mosques. 15:09 The Sharia courts typically only rule over the Muslim population or the Malay Muslim population of the states, but obviously certain issues like the ban of alcohol 15:24 or separated counters at supermarkets does impact on non-Muslims as well. The PAS is a relatively small opposition party in Malaysia. It stands for, in its English translation, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party. 15:41 It's been around since the 1950s. It's typically strong in Malaysia's northern Malay heartlands, states such as Kelantan. In its earliest formations, it was rather close to 15:55 UMNAW, which is the ruling party which has ruled since the federation began. UMNAW are the United Malays National Organization. 16:04 But in around the 1980s, the PAS started to be filled with more conservative, more radical clerics, more radical members, and they took on a more conservative strand of Islam. 16:17 This was at the same time when UMNAW, the ruling party, was trying to take a more moderate appearance and a more moderate form. 16:25 Specifically around the Hudud Bill, the PAS has been trying to implement Hudud for many decades now. It goes back to 1970s, 1980s. This is a perennial issue for the party. But 16:39 most of the time in the past, it's actually curtailed most of its efforts. Mainly, it didn't think it would either get support or it risked damaging itself and the party, 16:50 which does pose questions of why now, but maybe we'll come to that later. Turning to the actual formation of the Hudud, the PAS 17:00 has come out and said this isn't strictly Hudud, but it only wants to amend a law which was created in 1965, which gives the state more powers over its state Sharia courts. 17:14 But most people in Malaysia now are calling it the Hudud Bill for shorthand. A little bit about Hudud. Hudud is the criminal punishment set down by the Quran or by the oral teachings of the Prophet Muhammad. 17:28 Many of the things are seemingly banal and would be included in most secular 17:37 court systems, but also there's more harsh punishments like the amputation of limbs for theft or for flogging for improper sexual acts, which does tend to worry people. And also in Southeast Asia, 17:51 we've seen the introduction of Hudud in Indonesia's Aceh state, in the neighboring Aceh state. There's been worrying signs of public flogging, even recently of non-Muslims there, which Hudud is not supposed to do. 18:08 But it is important to remember that for now the bill is only, um, relevant to the state of Kelantan. 18:14 Um, but it, it does raise some fears in people that it could open the floodgates and perhaps other states will also argue for its implementation as well. 18:23 No one's really too sure how much, um, support it actually does have. Um, so one newspaper recently quoted a Twitter poll, um, that said that 80% were in favor of it. 18:34 Another newspaper a couple of days later said, um, another poll found that the majority of people didn't want it. 18:41 I think what it comes down to is a, a perennial question for Malaysia, that-- and if you read Malaysian newspapers every year or so, every two years or so, you, you'll find the editorials or the opinion columns, and they're asked the same question whether Malaysia is a secular or an Islamic state, um, or is it Islamic nation rather. 19:01 No one really can, um, answer this question. That, that's why it keeps on coming up. Um, but the Constitution does give Islam a special place in Malaysia, um, but then most of-- lots of its laws are also secular. 19:15 So it also comes down to geographic differences. So in the northern, um, parts of Malaysia, the northern states, these, these do tend to be typically rural. Um, typically, the populations are Malay Muslims. 19:29 Um, people will say that these places are typically conservative, and these are the places where, um, there is a desire perhaps to return to more or, or to enforce more, um, conservative Islam on the population, um, with the capital being seen as perhaps too cosmopolitan or perhaps too decadent or, or, or any of these suggestions that you'll find, um, around the world at the moment. 19:54 But, but, but again, no one really knows how much, um, how much, uh, interest there is in the public for it, although the Malaysian newspapers have been filled for the last three or four, five months with, with many, many comments about its benefits and also its, uh, its detriments as well. 20:10 [upbeat music] A celebration of sorts for Malaysia's Barisan Nasional coalition. Already the world's longest ruling coalition, now returned to power for another term. But the victory wasn't as big as it had hoped. 20:26 Some big names lost their seats, and Malaysia's ethnic Chinese all but abandoned the coalition, swinging decisively to the opposition Pakatan Rakyat. 20:37 Most of the commentators I've spoken to in Malaysia do say that this is only a political issue. This is the ruling party trying to destroy the opposition. Um, it's very weak at the moment. 20:49 So w-what one has to remember is that Islam in Malaysia is politicized. 20:55 So the ruling party, UMNO, who I said have been in, um, who've been in government since the nineteen sixties, have always been in charge of Malaysia, has made its position firm by appealing to both, um, the conservative Muslims in, um, in the rural heartlands and also moderate ones, um, and also non, uh, Malay Muslims as well. 21:19 Um, so take its former prime minister, um, Mahathir Mohamad. Um, he was prime minister between, uh, nineteen eighty-one and two thousand and three, so their longest prime minister. So 21:33 after nine eleven, his government, um, allegedly spent one point two million dollars on lobbying the US government to arrange a meeting between himself and George W. Bush, um, the president at the time. 21:45 Um, and it paid off. The money was effective and an arrangement, and a meeting was, um, arranged between the two. And in the, the war on terror, um, climate at the time, the US took Malaysia to be a moderate country. 22:01 This was what Malaysia was pitching and its prime minister was pitching to the US. We're a country you can do business with. 22:07 We're a country we can invest in and, um, give aid to and, uh, and, and, and cooperate on a lot of matters. But what you have at the same time, it, it-- this meeting was in two thousand and two, I believe. 22:19 The following year, in two thousand and three, um, the Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, um, welcomed the organization of Islamic co- uh, cooperation, um, to Malaysia for its annual summit and made his keynote speech, which was anti-Semitic and ast- uh, anti-Western. 22:36 He said, uh, Jews invented and successfully promoted socialism, communism, human rights and democracy, so that persecuting them would appear to be wrong. 22:44 With these now-- they have now gained control of most powerful countries, and they, this tiny community, have become a world power. 22:50 So what you have is, is a, um, is what one commentator, um, told me is the, the-- UMNO have been, been very good at double speak. They can say one thing to, to the conservative heartlands. 23:04 They can say another thing on the international stage. They can say another thing to, uh, non-Malay Muslims in Malaysia. Um, so it's always been very, very politicized. 23:14 So n-now what you have with the hudud bill, and, and perhaps a little bit more political history is necessary. The PAS was part of a, a large, uh, opposition coalition called the People's Alliance. 23:27 Uh, this was a multiracial coalition of, of many different, um, parties. Uh, UMNO are also part of a ruling coalition, which is, um, called the National Front. 23:37 In two thousand and eight, in general elections, um, UMNO and the ruling coalition lost fifty-eight seats. Th-this was a big, big failure for them. Then in two thousand and thirteen, um, they lost a popular vote. 23:51 But because, uh, Malaysia operates on a first past the post system, it gains more seats, so it was able to form a government. But this was an embarrassment, losing the popular vote to the opposition. 24:01 Um, lots of commentators say that after two thousand and thirteen, UMNO realized that perhaps it had to turn more towards conservative Islam. But probably also realised that it needed to destroy the opposition. 24:14 So when the PAS brought up the Hudud Bill once again, Umno actually supported it. They supported it, they fast-tracked it as a private member's bill, which will be discussed in Parliament in October. 24:32 And really what most commentators say, and which probably appears to be true, is that Umno knew this was going to be an incendiary. It was going to destroy the opposition. And true to form, it has. 24:43 In June 2015, the opposition coalition split up. The Chinese and Indian-led parties of the coalition didn't support Hudud and came out and attacked PAS. Then a few months later, the PAS actually split itself 25:00 with a number of more progressive members forming a new party, which is called the National Trust Party, I believe, or PAN in its Malaysian shorthand. So they formed a new splinter group from that party. 25:17 And that splinter group then joined a new coalition with the PAS's former coalition partners into a new coalition, which is now called the Alliance of Hope. 25:27 So this really destroyed the old coalition, which seemed to be on the up, definitely from the last few general elections. 25:35 So then what we saw in June, when Malaysia had two by-elections, was that Umno won both, and it won it relatively comfortably. 25:44 Most people say that this was because of the PAS split, with a new splinter party taking away many votes from the PAS. And in fact, if the party hadn't split, Umno probably would have lost both. 25:56 So it seems to be a relatively successful tactic to split up the coalition. Now, there's always rumours in Malaysia that one day Umno and PAS would actually form a coalition together. This seems 26:14 Most people put this down to a rumour which has been going around now for decades. Although for both parties, it would probably be conducive electorally. They both represent the Malay Muslim majority. 26:28 And coming together, they would be able to join those votes and probably win power for the next few decades. But most people really don't agree this has happened. So also 26:42 alongside this, alongside Umno's struggling victories, let's just say, at the elections in 2008 and 2013, we also have two important things. 26:55 One is the 1MDB scandal, which has really rocked the current Prime Minister, Najib Razak. He's under intense pressure. He's accused of stealing billions of dollars from the state investment firm. 27:11 A local court found him not guilty, although investigations are underway around the world, especially in the US. This has put him under intense pressure, even within his own party. 27:23 The former Prime Minister I mentioned earlier, Mahathir Mohamad, has come out and criticised Najib Razak and has actually led his own splinter group from Umno. 27:35 Although that doesn't really appear to be as successful as he probably hoped and other people hoped. But definitely he is under pressure, the Prime Minister. 27:47 The attack happened a week ago at this nondescript suburban bar and was at first believed to have been gang-related. 27:54 But Malaysia's chief of police now confirms that the attackers had been getting instructions from an Islamic State militant. 28:02 Police say the two men they have arrested and two more they are seeking were instructed by a Malaysian IS member in Syria who told them to hit un-Islamic establishments. 28:16 Another backdrop of this is the debate about ISIS or the Islamic State in Southeast Asia. In the Philippines, in Indonesia, there's been lots of concerns about local Islamic militants joining ISIS. 28:35 There was the first ISIS attack on Malaysian soil this June. The police have recently come out and said they foiled nine or so other terrorist attempts and one quite recently. 28:48 So the big concern is that this actually could, if the Hudud Bill goes wrong for Umno, then this really could spark racial religious tensions once again. 29:00 Most people I've spoken to in Malaysia really don't believe it will be introduced. The effects, if it was an intention by Umno to split the opposition, to weaken its rival 29:18 Malay Muslim party and to take interest away from the 1MDB scandal, then it has been successful. There's no reason why it has to support the bill which is expected to be debated in October. 29:36 Now, PAS don't have a chance of getting it through parliament if all of its own party votes for it. Even with Umno, if every single MP from Umno supports it, then 29:52 there are still the statistical odds are against it. It would require other parties to vote for it, which appears at the moment to be incredibly unlikely. So most people agree it will never be introduced. 30:04 It will be dismissed very quickly by Umno when the time suits, which would probably be coming up. 30:11 It would have done the damage to the opposition and their politicians will most likely find a way of placating many of the more conservative supporters by claiming the bill was jeopardised and they always really supported it. 30:24 So most people agree it won't be introduced. But on the faint chance that it is, then there is the possibility that it does spread and other states also call for the bill. 30:40 One commentator has speculated this would break up the whole Malaysian federation. People of other parties have already suggested that, that they want separation if this happens. Again, that seems incredibly unlikely. 30:55 But probably the most important outcome of this whole debate, even if it's not passed, is that it has once again brought racial and religious tensions back on the spotlight in Malaysia. 31:09 Read any Malaysian newspaper and they're talking about it all the time. People are very, very, very angry about even suggesting that this could go to parliament. 31:19 We've also seen a couple of months ago, one state mufti came out and called a number of politicians from an opposition party kafir harbi, which can be translated to mean an infidel. 31:38 And one interpretation of it is that it permits the killing of those who goes against Islam. So this is a worrying trend if it is 31:46 leading to a greater voice for conservative Islam and a weakening voice for secular Malaysia. My thanks to David for sharing these insights. 31:59 Please make sure to look at his in-depth article on the issue and additional coverage of Malaysia on worldpoliticsreview.com. Also on worldpoliticsreview.com, you can subscribe to the WPR newsletter. 32:12 And if you haven't yet subscribed to Trendlines, you should do so in iTunes or your podcast player of choice. And while you subscribe, please leave a rating or a review. 32:22 That helps our rankings, which in turn helps our visibility, which helps other people to discover the show. Trendlines is produced and edited by me, Peter Durie. You can follow me and World Politics Review on Twitter. 32:34 And you can find links to pieces covering the issues we talked about in the show notes on worldpoliticsreview.com. Have a fantastic weekend and see you next week for a new episode of Trendlines.
