Transcript 0:00 [intro music] Welcome to Trendlines, a podcast on global affairs brought to you by World Politics Review. I'm your host, Freddy Deknatel, WPR's senior editor. 0:15 Hit by the strongest El Niño in a generation, Malawi is in a crisis. A massive deficit of its staple crop, maize, has put millions of people at risk of acute food shortages. 0:27 But some organizations are hoping that a green revolution can lead to a more sustainable future in Southern Africa. 0:34 Journalist Jonathan Rosen will join Peter Dorrie in this week's report to discuss Malawi's quest for food security in a hunger-stricken region. 0:43 But first, I'm joined by WPR associate editor Carina Peiser for this week's briefing on world affairs. How are you doing? I'm doing well, thanks. How are you? Great. 0:54 So we have three pieces to discuss, and I thought we could just get right into it. 0:58 The first briefing I was gonna mention, uh, is a piece by Michael Kugelman, who looks at troubled ties between India and Pakistan and what it will take to get them back on track. 1:09 Not long ago, India and Pakistan appeared to be on a war footing after a, a terrorist attack on an Indian army base in Kashmir killed nineteen soldiers last month. 1:20 But of course, if you fast-forward to today, there's been no all-out war. Always the unlikely prospect, he says, anyway, given the deterrent value of nuclear weapons in both India and Pakistan. 1:32 But still, the bilateral relationship is in a deep crisis. 1:36 Relations have always been troubled, Michael writes, though more often than not, they've been defined by frequent ups and downs rather than constant hostility, and the prospects for improvement this time look dim. 1:48 That's because substantive and sustained bilateral dialogue requires a kind of safe space outside of official ties, whether that's civil society, trade, or business and cultural ties. 2:01 And as Michael notes, increasingly, there isn't much of that between India and Pakistan. Some Indians have been advocating for bans, for example, on Pakistani film stars in Bol- in Bollywood, 2:12 while Pakistan is seeking to limit the availability of Indian film and television content in Pakistan. A prominent Indian cricket player also has called for no more matches between the two countries. 2:24 With this kind of people-to-people hostility, this time around, Pakistan and India's ties, Michael says, are likely to suffer through a long and ugly low before bouncing back. 2:35 Yeah, I thought that what was particularly interesting in the piece is that as bad as ties are right now, Kugelman offers useful historical context to show that, as you, as you mentioned, Freddy, even though the going is rough right now, they can eventually still bounce back, even though it will, of course, be an uphill battle. 2:54 And I know that, uh, you were interested in talking about the latest column by Richard Gowan. Yeah, indeed. 3:02 So in his column this week, Richard Gowan asks if Moscow cares at all about all of the mounting international outrage over its behavior in Syria. Um, over the past two weeks, uh, criticism has become louder. 3:15 Western and Arab diplomats convened in Brussels, New York, and Geneva to discuss how to address the situation. 3:21 Um, but rather than compelling Russia to scale down its operations in Syria, and particularly in Aleppo, where the humanitarian crisis is, uh, deepening, um, 3:32 tension is actually probably going to increase between Western and non-Western powers while having little impact on Russia's actions in Syria moving forward. 3:42 And even as they have become more vocal in their criticisms of Russia, uh, Gowan points out that Western leaders haven't agreed on any serious form of legal action. 3:51 Last week, for example, EU leaders unanimously criticized Russia for what they called atrocities in Syria, but they didn't show much conviction on the threat of potential sanctions. 4:01 And even with talk of the General Assembly launching a new mechanism to gather evidence of war crimes in Syria, that, for now, is hypothetical and far off. 4:11 Um, recently, uh, António Guterres was selected to succeed Ban Ki-moon as UN Secretary-General. 4:19 And given that the Syrian conflict and Russia's involvement in it particularly doesn't seem to be going anywhere, he'll have a lot on his plate. 4:27 Gowan mentions that Guterres may be able to leverage his fresh public profile to emphasize and reiterate the UN's basic commitment to fighting mass atrocities, but in the current climate, and especially in the context of Syria, that too remains uncertain. 4:41 Speaking of historical context, Richard notes how almost exactly sixty years ago, in November 1956, the General Assembly held emergency sessions on the Soviet invasion of Hungary at the time, even appointing a special committee to investigate events there. 4:58 But Moscow ensured that these officials never really had access to the country, though they were still able, he notes, to build up considerable evidence of Soviet abuses in Hungary. 5:09 Although all that led to were a few condemning resolutions. Six decades on, Richard says, the UN still doesn't know what to do with Russia. 5:19 And the last piece I wanted to mention, uh, was another briefing, uh, this time from Tanzania by one of our semi-regular contributors, Michael Jennings, who is at SOAS in London. 5:31 He looks at a troubling authoritarian turn by the president, John Magufuli, who was elected just about a year ago. 5:41 And soon after winning the presidential election, Magufuli lived up to his nickname that he'd acquired while he was the Minister of Works, The Bulldozer. 5:50 He launched an anti-corruption drive, sacked senior officials, and pledged to clean up the country, quite literally. He was even photographed in the capital picking up garbage. 6:01 But a year on, he's accused of becoming an autocrat. Tanzanians, for example, who have been posting pretty mild criticisms of the president online have been detained and charged under a so-called Cyber Crimes Act. 6:15 A half a dozen people have been charged, and some even sentenced to jail for insulting the president. And most of all, Magufuli has tried to shut down formal opposition in Tanzania. 6:26 In July, he issued a presidential decree that's banning political rallies until 2020. That hasn't stopped protests, though, which have turned violent as police have cracked down. 6:38 Despite this attention, though, on Magufuli's authoritarian streak, the willingness of the ruling party in Tanzania to use force in this way to try to keep its political dominance isn't really much new, as Michael explains. 6:51 The ruling party, he says, ha- in fact, has a long track record of this kind of behavior. 6:56 And it isn't actually clear if this apparent unease among the government over any political opposition is coming really from Magufuli's own insecurity or within the ruling party, which has been pretty fractured over the last year. 7:10 Still, the authoritarian turn is a worrying trend in Tanzania, especially since it would take an even more authoritarian government to silence the political opposition, 7:20 and that could turn away international donors and investors that the country relies on. The Bulldozer, Michael says, faces a test for what kind of president he really wants to be. 7:31 Yeah, you mentioned that it would take an even more authoritarian leader to stifle the opposition, and what I found interesting about Jennings' piece was that Tanzania's opposition seems quite viable in contrast to, um, in, in the region there are some opposition forces that are so fractured that their chances of, of inserting themselves in politics are very slim, whereas in Tanzania, as he mentions in his piece, Tanzania's opposition has successfully chipped away at the ruling party's share of the vote in parliament, for example. 8:01 So it'll be interesting to see how far, uh, the president's autocratic slide goes in terms of stifling the opposition, in terms of protests and political participation moving forward. 8:13 On the one hand, looks like another trend of a president in Africa, um, taking an anti-democratic turn. 8:19 But as you said, and as, as Michael points out in his piece, there is actually a, a more formed political opposition in Tanzania than, uh, in other places, perhaps like the Republic of Congo, the DRC, that we've talked about in the past, um, and Rwanda as well, where there have been efforts, uh, by presidents to really circumvent institutional and constitutional barriers to hold onto power, uh, which we mentioned in the podcast last week. 8:45 Thanks for being here, Carina. It was good to chat. It was good to join this week. Thanks, Freddy. And now, here's Peter Dory with the report. [Instrumental music] Welcome to the Trend Lines Report. 8:58 My name is Peter Dory, and this week I'm joined by Jon Rosen. I'm Jonathan W. Rosen. 9:05 I'm a independent journalist based in Kigali, Rwanda and covering Africa, and I'm also a 2016 reporting fellow with the Alicia Patterson Foundation, uh, based in Washington. 9:19 Jon recently spent some time in Malawi looking at the country's agricultural sector. 9:25 Like the rest of the continent, Malawi has great agricultural potential but imports food staples even in normal years, and the last few years have been anything but normal. 9:38 This, this year, largely because of, uh, the El Niño phenomenon, uh, agricultural output in, uh, much of Eastern and Southern Africa has been, uh, significantly, uh, below averages. 9:52 Malawi is in the grips of a food crisis, the worst in a decade. It follows flooding and a prolonged drought. 10:00 Now, some two point eight million Malawians are in need of urgent- There are an estimated eighteen million people, uh, in seven different countries that will require food assistance by the end of the year, uh, if they haven't been, been getting it already. 10:14 What's happened in East and Central Africa, uh, in 2015 and 2016 is, is the conditions have been significantly drier than normal. 10:26 Uh, but in certain countries, such as Malawi, there were, there were also periods of rain that came at inopportune times. 10:34 Uh, and so when, when a f- when a farmer's planting maize, they have to make a, a choice about when is the best time to plant. 10:42 Obviously, ma- maize needs rain and, in fact, it's one of the more rain, uh, sensitive crops, uh, that are staples, uh, in the continent. 10:52 But if a, if, if, if the rain is too heavy, uh, and it comes at the wrong time, it can also, uh, damage, severely damage crops that have already been planted. 11:01 Traditionally, in Malawi and in other countries in the region, the weather cycle has been more or less predictable, but with global climate change, it's becoming less so. 11:12 And so farmers are just having, having more difficulty knowing exactly when, when to plant. 11:18 And, uh, if you sort of look at the longer term projections for what, uh, global warming will do to agricultural output in Africa, uh, it, it doesn't look very good. 11:29 Uh, there's one study by the World Bank that suggests between 40 and 80% of, of land that is currently used to grow maize, millet, and sorghum, uh, which are three key crops, uh, could, could no longer be viable. 11:43 A- and so climate change has already had an effect on these farmers, but things are only going to get worse. Climate change is impacting me as a farmer, uh, very hard. Very hard. 11:56 Because I can't get green grass my cattle, I get-- I can't get enough fruits To sell to the, to the market. And we have a lot of, uh, problem with the drought. 12:07 The climate is affecting people because they can't- The, the people most at risk, uh, tend to be the poorer segments of the population, uh, that are living in the countryside. 12:18 Uh, people that are predominantly subsistence farmers. Uh, in the, the case of Malawi, many of these people are, are only growing maize, which is the staple crop there. 12:28 One, one of the reasons why Malawi is, is hit particularly hard is, is that it's, has a... 12:34 even by, by Sub-Saharan African standards, has a very low rate of urbanization, and is one of the least developed countries on the continent. 12:44 With its extremely high share of subsistence farmers and very low urbanization, Malawi is an extreme but not atypical case for Sub-Saharan Africa. 12:55 In many African countries, the unfavorable conditions produced by climate change are exacerbated by the shrinking size of individual plots, outdated farming techniques, and underdeveloped markets. 13:08 Maize is the s- the staple crop. It's accounts for about 60% of all calories consumed by Malawians, which is, uh, one of the highest in Africa. 13:19 Uh, but maize is, is typically only grown by small scale, predominantly subsistence farmers, many of whom do not use, uh, fertilizers or improved hybrid seeds, uh, because these tend to be quite expensive. 13:36 Um, and there've, there have been concerted efforts by, by the government and by, uh, a number of international aid agencies, uh, USAID, the European Union, e- et cetera, to, to increase access to improved inputs for farmers. 13:53 But often these just aren't financially viable, [smacks lips] in part because the interest rates in Malawi are very high, uh, uh, as high as 40% in some cases. 14:03 So a farmer can't really borrow to finance the cost of these inputs. The other side of the equation, the, uh... for the most part, commercial farmers in the country don't grow maize, uh, because it's just not profitable. 14:18 The government, uh, keeps, uh, prices of maize artificially low and actually bans the export of maize, uh, in part because it doesn't want, uh, vital stock of grain leaving the country in, in times like 2016 when, when there are shortages. 14:35 But it has the perverse incentive of, of really, um, keeping maize production only in the hands of smallholders who are not particularly productive. 14:45 So, so certainly a key to, to mitigating this problem in the long run has to involve improving the output of, of smallholder farmers. 14:55 Seizing the moment, some high profile delegates have gathered in Nairobi for the opening of the African Green Revolution Forum. 15:04 Among them, Rwanda's pre- The template for this is, of course, the Green Revolution that helped Asian countries like China and India to boost their agricultural output dramatically. 15:15 They've stressed the importance of agricultural transformation for the continent's future success. 15:22 The main thrust of agricultural policy in Africa now is in many ways to try and mimic the, the strategy of the Green Revolution. 15:32 Um, get farmers improved inputs, hybrid seeds, fertilizers, irrigation, and, uh, this is, uh, a strategy that's been endorsed, uh, essentially by the African Union, uh, which has, uh, 15:47 established a program in, in 2003 that targets a 6% annual growth in, in agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa. This has actually been somewhat successful. 15:58 Um, and, uh, there was a, a report released recently by an organization called the Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa, which is also supporting these sorts of initiatives. 16:09 Um, and it reported that 15 countries had achieved 6% growth in agricultural since 2008. Uh, so despite the problems this year, things tend to be headed in the right direction. 16:23 Um, the same time there, there are many critics who, who will argue that this strategy is quite risky, um, because over time, uh, relying on hybrid seeds, which require, uh, significant use of fertilizers, is not very good for the soil and, and can lead to, uh, degraded soil if other measures aren't taken to try and boost the soil fertility. 16:50 And so there are really a mix of, of approaches, uh, that are, that are being tried and, and there's a fair amount of disagreement, uh, uh, between, uh, the, uh, the more traditional proponents of the Green Revolution model and, and, and others that say this is dangerous and stress, uh, more organic or, or agri-ecological methods. 17:13 Transforming the practices of millions of smallholder farmers is difficult. From a government's perspective, it might be more attractive to bring in businesses that already know how it's done. 17:25 One other strategy that, that is, uh, being employed in Malawi and another, a number of other African countries to boost output is the offering of land to foreign investors to create more viable, uh, large scale farms that, that can produce some sort of product, uh, to be integrated into a value chain. 17:49 Africa's land and water now is on market for sale. So this matter- But the search for foreign investment has also given rise to charges of land grabbing. 17:58 While Africa's agricultural potential remains underutilized, few countries have the necessary legal framework to identify beneficiaries and owners of land and to compensate them, leaving both the farmers and the companies in an unenviable situation. 18:16 Here you might lose your li- s- real estate, but still survive. In Africa, if Af- African farmers are losing their land, they have nowhere to go. Families are going to be destroyed. 18:25 And these- Uh, so an example of this is a, a company called Malawi Mangoes that Came to, to Malawi a few years back and essentially noticed that the country has an, an amazing supply of mangoes. 18:36 I think there are four million mango trees along Lake Malawi, a-and many of them are going to waste every year, uh, because there's no way of preserving them, and people in these villages can only eat so many mangoes, so 18:49 they, they fall from the trees and rot on the ground. And so the company tried to come in and, and, and built a factory and create mango puree for export. 18:59 Um, and, uh, they did it in part by, by buying mangoes from existing trees of local farmers, but they also secured some land from the government, uh, to start, uh, mango plantations. 19:11 And they hit some roadblocks largely due to questions about, uh, land tenure in the country. 19:18 Um, Malawi, like, like many African countries, in rural areas, land is, is, is still held on a customary basis, which means communities can 19:31 be, be using land for centuries, uh, but in, in, in Malawian law, uh, as it reads today, uh, they technically don't own the an- land. No one owns the land. 19:43 And, and so this doesn't entitle people to compensation when the land is transferred to, uh, an investor. 19:50 Basically, what happened in the case of Malawi mangoes is that there was a community that was supposed to be compensated for this land that was not, uh, and they accused their local traditional leader of pocketing the funds and not distributing it to the people that were meant to get it. 20:07 This has caused, uh, major headaches for the company. African governments will have to find solutions to the issue of ownership and compensation, no matter if they welcome foreign investors or not. 20:19 Generating the necessary boost to agricultural productivity will only be possible if farmers can take advantage of the better economies of scale that go along with larger plots. John says. One of the big barriers to, uh, 20:36 productivity in Malawi is the fact that the, the average plot of land is so small. Uh, it's about two acres per household, which has, has about halved since, uh, independence. 20:49 Many stakeholders in the country's agricultural policy are, are well aware that this isn't really sustainable either, and that in order to, to boost productivity, to best access, uh, irrigation and economies of scale that come with, uh, with adding a layer of, uh, agroprocessing, uh, to, to raw agricultural output, that plots of land really have to be bigger. 21:13 A-and, and there have been efforts, uh, by a number of companies to invest in larger scale commercial farming ventures. 21:20 But, so ultimately, for, for agricultural productivity to improve in, in Malawi, there's gotta be fewer people farming the land and, and the farming has to take place on a larger scale. 21:32 But with Africa's population rapidly growing, alternative occupations would have to be found for millions of people. 21:40 In Asian countries, rapid industrialization of urban centers allowed societies to absorb the labor made redundant in rural areas. But for most African countries, this is simply not an option. 21:53 A country like Malawi, which re-really has very little industry to speak of, is kind of the, the worst positioned, uh, for this to happen. It, it's, it's landlocked. It's very far from, from any viable port. 22:09 Um, and it, it, it doesn't have, uh, a well-educated workforce. One of the, one of the big problems in Malawi is certainly a lack of industrialization. It's not only an agricultural issue. 22:24 And so that's, that's one reason why the outlook for Malawi is honestly not, not so great, because I don't really see a way that the country can create a sufficient number of jobs to get people off of, of the farms. 22:39 [Instrumental music] Thanks to Jonathan Rosen for joining us this week. If you'd like to read more about food security in Malawi and other parts of Africa, you can find his in-depth article on worldpoliticsreview.com. 22:53 If you like what you hear on Trendlines, go ahead and subscribe, and new episodes will be downloaded automatically to your smartphone or computer when they're published every Friday. 23:03 Just search for Trendlines in the podcast app of your choice. Trendlines is produced by Peter Dorrie, who also conducts the report interviews. 23:11 You can follow Peter and World Politics Review on Twitter, and you can find links to the articles we talked about in the show notes on worldpoliticsreview.com. 23:21 Have a great weekend, and see you next week for a new episode of Trendlines. [Instrumental music]
