Syria's Comeback at the U.N.

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the overlooked crises competing for attention as the U.N. General Assembly gets underway and a fuel theft scandal in Mexico that’s actually a blessing in disguise for President Claudia Sheinbaum.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

This time last year, Abu Mohammed al-Golani was busy preparing for a major offensive against the Syrian regime led at the time by dictator Bashar al-Assad. The Islamist militant group under al-Golani’s command, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, had spent years building up its military arsenal, consolidating power over rival militias in the northwest and coordinating with other rebel factions in the south. They would soon launch a lightning campaign that would end the brutal Assad dynasty and, with it, Syria’s 14-year civil war.

Fast forward to the present and al-Golani has cast aside his nom de guerre and traded in his combat fatigues for business suits. Ahmed al-Sharaa, as he is now known, arrived in New York on Sunday to represent Syria as the country’s interim president at this week’s high-level meetings of the U.N. General Assembly. He is the first Syrian leader to do so since 1967.

It is a stunning transformation for a man who had a $10 million U.S. bounty put on his head in 2018 due to his past associations with al-Qaida and the Islamic State, though he has since renounced those ties. The bounty was lifted in December, and President Donald Trump subsequently met with al-Sharra and took a series of steps to normalize relations with his government, including the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria and the revocation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s designation as a terrorist group.

However, many other states—as well as the U.N. Security Council—continue to consider HTS as a terrorist organization and maintain their web of Syria-related sanctions, partly due to worries about the composition of the new government. A U.N. report released over the summer cited concerns from member states that “several HTS and aligned members, especially those in tactical roles or integrated into the new Syrian army, remained ideologically tied to al-Qaida.”

There are also unresolved questions about the new government’s posture toward Syria’s ethnic and religious minorities—including significant numbers of Kurds, Alawites, Christians, and Druze—many of whom remain suspicious of al-Sharra.

Underlying those concerns, fierce sectarian clashes broke out in July between Druze and Sunni Bedouin armed groups in and around the southern city of Sweida, leaving hundreds of people dead. And northern Syria has seen sporadic but persistent exchanges of fire between government forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

The interim government is moving forward with indirect elections to appoint a People’s Assembly, scheduled for Oct. 5. However, authorities have postponed voting in parts of southern and northern Syria, citing security concerns. The reality, though, is that even if the government wanted to organize polls in those areas, it lacks the effective control to do so. That has only exacerbated concerns about how inclusive the new assembly will be—especially given one-third of its members will be appointed by the interim president himself.

Al-Sharaa will spend much of his time in New York this week lobbying for further sanctions relief, a crucial step for Syria’s long postwar recovery. He will no doubt face questions about his plans to transition the country to a democratic system of governance with adequate guarantees of autonomy for areas dominated by minority groups.

He previewed his response to such questions in a recent interview with CBS News, pointing out that the current sanctions on Syria were designed to target the Assad regime, which indiscriminately shelled, tortured, and unleashed chemical weapons upon its own people. Given the international community “failed to deter” those atrocities, he argued, those who oppose the lifting of sanctions would be “complicit in killing the Syrian people once again.”

As leaders gather for the annual high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly this week, they have no shortage of wars to worry about. The war in Gaza, where a U.N. commission recently found that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians, will dominate proceedings. Other conflicts and humanitarian crises are likely to get significantly less attention. This is unfortunate, as while the U.S. continues to block action on Gaza in the Security Council, there are other situations where—with some much-needed political will—the U.N. could still have an impact, Richard Gowan writes.

In mid-March, Mexican authorities seized the ship Challenge Procyon after it had arrived at the Gulf port of Tampico from the United States. The cargo included nearly 63,000 barrels, or 10 million liters, of diesel fuel that had been misclassified on the ship’s bill of lading as a tax-exempt fuel additive. Since then, Mexican authorities and investigative journalists have unraveled a corruption scheme that has implicated the highest levels of Mexico’s military and government. As James Bosworth writes in his weekly column, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s proactive response to the scandal signals a shift from her predecessor and political patron, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.    

Mali’s military government has signed seven new deals with mining companies as part of its effort to increase state revenue from mining activities. The government revised the country’s mining code in 2023 to increase state revenues from mining and to require at least 35 percent local ownership of mines.

As the price of gold has risen in recent years, governments across West Africa, which is the center of gold production on the continent, have moved to make sure that they benefit. However, Africa’s gold rush is a double-edged sword, Jessica Moody wrote in WPR in July. The high price of gold has also increased artisanal gold mining activity, leading to tensions between artisanal and industrial miners, and to violent clashes as jihadist insurgents seek to tap mining revenues to fund their operations.

Ecuador’s electoral council has approved President Daniel Noboa’s plan to hold a referendum in November on whether foreign military bases should be allowed in the country. Ecuador’s constitution was revised in 2008 under leftist president Raphael Correa to prohibit foreign military bases, but Noboa now wants to partner with other countries, including the United States, to fight drug trafficking gangs.

 Noboa won reelection in April in part by promising to crack down on crime in the country, and now the Ecuadoran public is looking to him to deliver. While Noboa has focused on using domestic and foreign military forces to fight drug gangs, a long-term fix to the country’s security problems will also require more complex measures, such as building up the capabilities of civilian police forces and rooting out corruption in the government, James Bosworth wrote in June.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will meet in South Korea next month, and Trump will travel to China for a meeting next year, Trump said in a social media post. The Trump administration’s vision for U.S.-China relations is not yet clear. Connor Fiddler looked at the possible end states in a WPR briefing in April.

As Moldova prepares to hold elections Sunday, Moldovan police conducted more than 100 raids today as part of an investigation into Russian meddling in the upcoming vote. As Nathalie Tocci wrote in September, Europe has so far failed to find effective countermeasures against Russia’s election meddling, disinformation campaigns and hybrid attacks.

More from WPR

• Paul Poast on the increasing lawlessness of a “world at war.”

• Derek Grossman on how Bangladesh’s interim government is reshaping its foreign policy.

• Seungmin (Helen) Lee on the security gaps in the global quest for sovereign AI.

• Frida Ghitis on the fragile edifice of Western support for Ukraine.

Read all of our latest coverage here.