Sheinbaum and Carney Try to Team Up

Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the increasing lawlessness of a “world at war” and interim leader Muhammad Yunus’ shake-up of Bangladesh’s foreign policy.

But first, here’s our take on today’s top story:

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum hosted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney this week for a summit in Mexico City that likely would not have happened if not for the ongoing challenge posed by Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Trump has imposed tariffs of 35 percent on Canada and 25 percent on Mexico, ostensibly as punishment for failing to address cross-border drug trafficking and illegal migration, though many goods are exempt due to the U.S.-Mexico-Canda Agreement, the free trade deal that the three countries signed during Trump’s first term as a replacement for NAFTA.

With the USMCA coming up for a mandatory review next year, Trump is expected to use that occasion to seek further concessions from Canada and Mexico—perhaps not only on trade but also on other issues like migration and security cooperation. Sheinbaum and Carney know that they will have more leverage in those negotiations if they forge a united front, but first they have some repair work to do in their own bilateral relationship.

Canadian officials were taken aback when, during negotiations over the USMCA in 2018, Mexico struck a preliminary bilateral trade deal with the U.S. that threatened to leave Canada out in the cold. And last fall, as Trump prepared to take office, Canadian officials ruffled feathers in Mexico with critical comments about Mexico’s trade with China and its ongoing struggles against drug cartels. Ontario Premier Doug Ford even said that being compared to Mexico was “the most insulting thing I have ever heard.”

At a joint press conference following their meetings in Mexico City, reporters pressed Carney and Sheinbaum on whether they would be able to unite against Trump without throwing each other “under the bus.” Carney bristled at the question, saying “Canada is absolutely committed to work with both our partners. Is that unequivocal enough for you?” Sheinbaum concurred that a “trade agreement for all three countries is the best thing for all three countries.”

As part of their bid to mend ties, Carney and Sheinbaum signed a new “comprehensive strategic partnership,” which they said would “complement” the USMCA. They also agreed to strengthen direct commercial links between the two countries, including through maritime trade that doesn’t rely on crossing U.S. territory.

The stakes for these trust-building efforts are high. Since the USMCA came into force in 2020, Mexico and Canada have become the United States’ top trading partners. With both countries’ economies already facing considerable headwinds, losing the preferential access and integrated supply chains of the deal would be a body blow at an inopportune time.

At next year’s review, the three countries will need to agree on whether to renew it—potentially with updated provisions. Failing to do so will trigger a series of annual reviews beginning in 2027 for ten years, before its scheduled expiration in 2036.

According to a recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, the most likely scenario is that the three parties fail to resolve their differences and proceed to annual reviews. Other possibilities include early withdrawal by one of the signatories, a fallback to bilateral agreements, or a “painful withdrawal” by which Mexico and Canada agree to steep concessions.

Given Trump’s penchant for unpredictability and chaos, nothing can be ruled out. For Canada and Mexico, steering the talks to a mutually beneficial outcome will mean first overcoming the mistrust between them.

From Sudan to Gaza to Ukraine, civil conflicts and interstate wars remain at their highest levels since the end of World War II. But perhaps more notable than the “return” of these traditional forms of conflict is that we are also witnessing, both within states and between them, a corresponding general acceptance and even encouragement of violence. Indeed, it is hard to escape the conclusion that the world has entered a period of blatant lawlessness and disorder, Paul Poast writes in his weekly column.

Since the ouster and exile of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, Bangladesh has seen a power struggle among the disparate political groups vying for influence in the country’s changed political landscape. Amid the jockeying for political pole position in Dhaka, Yunus’ interim government has upended Bangladesh’s foreign policy in ways that will be difficult for the eventual winner of the election to undo, Derek Grossman writes.

The U.N. Security Council is expected to vote on a resolution today that would prevent so-called “snapback” sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program from taking effect by the end of the month. The Associated Press reports that the resolution does not have enough support to prevent the sanctions, which were triggered last month by France, Germany and the U.K. under a provision of the original Iran nuclear deal.

Europe’s efforts to reimpose sanctions on Iran could be the final blow to the nuclear deal that was negotiated by Europe and the United States 10 years ago. As Natalie Tocci wrote in WPR in August, Europe’s approach could backfire if Iran is not convinced that a deal on the scale now sought by Europe is worth the cost. “Rather than advancing unrealistic goals, European diplomacy should strive to use the limited influence it has to press Iran to resume cooperation with the IAEA,” Tocci wrote.

Diplomats from the United States and South Africa have held talks in Washington this week on lifting steep tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in August. The 30 percent U.S. tariff rate on South African goods is the highest of any country in sub-Saharan Africa and could further weaken a stagnant South African economy.

The tensions between the United States and South Africa go beyond trade, however, and even beyond Trump’s fixation on a South African land reform law that he has misleadingly characterized as discriminatory toward white people. As Matthew M. Kavanagh argued in a February WPR briefing, the current tensions are rooted in South Africa’s diplomatic efforts on issues like climate change and Israel’s war on Gaza, which are part of South Africa’s larger focus on righting what it sees as inequities in the global order that negatively impact Global South countries.

Under Israel’s relentless military onslaught in Gaza, Hamas has transformed itself from an organized force to a decentralized guerrilla-style insurgency, the New York Times reports. As Khaled Hroub predicted in WPR almost a year ago, Israel’s goal of completely eradicating Hamas appears to be unrealistic. Instead, Hroub outlined three likely scenarios for Hamas’ postwar prospects.

France has recalled diplomatic personnel from Mali and suspended military cooperation with the country after authorities in the West African nation arrested a French diplomat—reportedly a spy working undercover—as well as high-ranking Malian military officers. As Tangi Bihan explained in WPR earlier this month, the French official’s arrest and the military purge indicate a high degree of paranoia on the part of Mali’s ruling military junta.

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Read all of our latest coverage here.